Football · Japan L1 League Women · 26/09, 07:00

Prediction: Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Setagaya Sfida (W)

Team pages: Vonds Ichihara (W) · Setagaya Sfida (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Vonds Ichihara (W)1.03

Setagaya Sfida (W)1.68

1X2

23% 25% 52%

Vonds Ichihara (W) Draw Setagaya Sfida (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vonds Ichihara (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Setagaya Sfida (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vonds Ichihara (W) 0–1 Setagaya Sfida (W) (1 last)

Setagaya Sfida (W)2-0Vonds Ichihara (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vonds Ichihara (W) 1464 · Setagaya Sfida (W) 1473

	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Draw	Setagaya Sfida (W)
Our model	22%	27%	51%
Market	24%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Setagaya Sfida (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.6	2.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	0.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.75

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.99 ★
2	1.53 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.74

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:06 +9’	4.75	3.80	1.53
22:50 +1’	4.00▼	3.60▼	1.67▲
01:01 +9’	3.80▼	3.75▲	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:14 +1’	3.51	3.89	1.77
22:50 +1’	3.69▲	3.92▲	1.72▼
05:01 +31’	3.76▲	3.99▲	1.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vonds Ichihara (W) 0–0–1 Setagaya Sfida (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Japan L1 League Women	Setagaya Sfida (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Vonds Ichihara (W)

Standings · Japan L1 League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	18	11	3	4	49	13	36
2	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	18	10	5	3	39	18	35
3	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	18	9	5	4	26	14	32
4	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	18	9	5	4	32	24	32
5	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	19	9	3	7	34	28	30
6	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	18	8	5	5	21	17	29
7	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	18	8	3	7	28	29	27
8	Setagaya Sfida (W)	19	6	4	9	28	32	22
9	Ehime FC (W)	18	6	4	8	21	35	22
10	AS Harima Albion (W)	18	5	5	8	19	24	20
11	Nittaidai FC (W)	19	4	1	14	19	53	13
12	Vonds Ichihara (W)	19	3	1	15	12	41	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Setagaya Sfida (W)
Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	2-0 W	0-1 L
Ehime FC (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Nittaidai FC (W)	2-1 W	2-3 L
Loveledge Nagoya (W)	0-0 D	2-0 W
Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	1-3 L	1-1 D
Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	0-2 L	0-2 L
AS Harima Albion (W)	0-1 L	2-2 D
Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	1-5 L	2-1 W
Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	0-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Setagaya Sfida (W) (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vonds Ichihara (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	2-0	6	0	W
12/09	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
06/09	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/06	Loveledge Nagoya (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
21/06	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	1-3	1	0	L
13/06	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
06/06	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/05	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-4	1-5	3	1	L
17/05	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-2	0-4	5	0	L

Setagaya Sfida (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-2	2-3	3	0	L
12/09	Loveledge Nagoya (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
05/09	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
08/08	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
21/06	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
13/06	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
07/06	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	2-1	5	1	W
24/05	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
17/05	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-1	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Setagaya Sfida (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Setagaya Sfida (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Vonds Ichihara (W) 23%, draw 25%, Setagaya Sfida (W) 52%.

How many goals are expected in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Setagaya Sfida (W)?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Vonds Ichihara (W) 1.03 · Setagaya Sfida (W) 1.68), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Setagaya Sfida (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.