Football · Japan L1 League Women · 04/10, 07:00

Prediction: Setagaya Sfida (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

Team pages: Setagaya Sfida (W) · Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Setagaya Sfida (W)1.09

Orca Kamogawa FC (W)1.24

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Setagaya Sfida (W) Draw Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Setagaya Sfida (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLLWLW

Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Setagaya Sfida (W) 0–4–2 Orca Kamogawa FC (W) (6 last)

Orca Kamogawa FC (W)1-0Setagaya Sfida (W)
Setagaya Sfida (W)1-2Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Orca Kamogawa FC (W)0-0Setagaya Sfida (W)
Orca Kamogawa FC (W)1-1Setagaya Sfida (W)
Setagaya Sfida (W)2-2Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Orca Kamogawa FC (W)1-1Setagaya Sfida (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Setagaya Sfida (W) 1479 · Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 1540

	Setagaya Sfida (W)	Draw	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	33%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orca Kamogawa FC (W) (rating 1479 vs 1540).
H2H favours Orca Kamogawa FC (W): 2-4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Setagaya Sfida (W)	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.4 / 0	0.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +8’	2.75	3.25	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Setagaya Sfida (W) 0–4–2 Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Japan L1 League Women	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Setagaya Sfida (W)
07/06/25 Japan L1 League Women	Setagaya Sfida (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
30/03/25 Japan L1 League Women	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Setagaya Sfida (W)
01/09/24 Japan L1 League Women	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Setagaya Sfida (W)
28/04/24 Japan L1 League Women	Setagaya Sfida (W)	2-2 HT 1-2	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
11/06/23 Japan L1 League Women	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Setagaya Sfida (W)

Standings · Japan L1 League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	19	12	3	4	51	14	39
2	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	18	10	5	3	39	18	35
3	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	18	9	5	4	26	14	32
4	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	19	9	5	5	33	26	32
5	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	19	9	5	5	25	18	32
6	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	19	9	3	7	34	28	30
7	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	19	8	3	8	29	33	27
8	Ehime FC (W)	19	7	4	8	24	35	25
9	Setagaya Sfida (W)	19	6	4	9	28	32	22
10	AS Harima Albion (W)	19	5	5	9	19	27	20
11	Nittaidai FC (W)	19	4	1	14	19	53	13
12	Vonds Ichihara (W)	19	3	1	15	12	41	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Setagaya Sfida (W)	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Vonds Ichihara (W)	1-0 W	0-2 L
Nittaidai FC (W)	2-3 L	1-0 W
Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	0-3 L	2-1 W
Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	0-2 L	5-1 W
AS Harima Albion (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ehime FC (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Orca Kamogawa FC (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Setagaya Sfida (W)

DDWDLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Vonds Ichihara (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
20/09	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-2	2-3	3	0	L
12/09	Loveledge Nagoya (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
05/09	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
08/08	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
21/06	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
13/06	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
07/06	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	2-1	5	1	W
24/05	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
17/05	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

WWLDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Vonds Ichihara (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-2	0-2	7	0	L
13/09	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
06/09	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	3-1	5-1	4	0	W
27/06	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
20/06	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	2-1	2	0	W
14/06	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
07/06	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
24/05	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
16/05	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
10/05	Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-0	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Setagaya Sfida (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Orca Kamogawa FC (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Setagaya Sfida (W) 32%, draw 29%, Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 39%.

How many goals are expected in Setagaya Sfida (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Setagaya Sfida (W) 1.09 · Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Setagaya Sfida (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.