Football · Argentina Nacional B · 27/09, 20:30
Prediction: Almagro vs Nueva Chicago
Team pages: Almagro · Nueva Chicago
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.03Total
Almagro1.04
Nueva Chicago1
1X2
Almagro
Draw
Nueva Chicago
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Almagro
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Nueva Chicago
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Almagro
2–1–3
Nueva Chicago
(6 last)
- Nueva Chicago1-2Almagro
- Almagro1-2Nueva Chicago
- Nueva Chicago1-0Almagro
- Nueva Chicago2-0Almagro
- Almagro0-0Nueva Chicago
- Nueva Chicago2-3Almagro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Almagro 1486 · Nueva Chicago 1428
| Almagro | Draw | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.03 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Almagro (rating 1486 vs 1428).
- H2H favours Nueva Chicago: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Almagro | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 2.7 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 5.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Almagro 2–1–3 Nueva Chicago
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Almagro |
| 22/06/24 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Nueva Chicago |
| 03/02/24 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Almagro |
| 14/07/23 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Almagro |
| 12/03/23 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nueva Chicago |
| 13/09/22 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Almagro |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Temperley | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 53 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 28 | 14 | 50 |
| 4 | CA Atlanta | 29 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 28 | 48 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 25 | 47 |
| 6 | San Martin SJ | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 27 | 45 |
| 7 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 31 | 27 | 45 |
| 8 | Atletico Rafaela | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 26 | 42 |
| 9 | Deportivo Maipu | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 31 | 41 |
| 10 | CA Colegiales | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 30 | 40 |
| 11 | San Martin de Tucuman | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 39 |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 34 | 36 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 27 | 35 |
| 14 | Almagro | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 36 | 35 |
| 15 | Nueva Chicago | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 28 | 32 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 29 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 23 | 30 | 30 |
| 17 | Chacarita Juniors | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 31 | 30 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 48 | 23 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Almagro | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|
| CA Colegiales | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Quilmes | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Gimnasia y Tiro | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Ferrocarril Midland | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| CA Atlanta | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Almagro (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Almagro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 05/08 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 28/07 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Nueva Chicago
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 17/08 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/07 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Almagro win (34%). Probabilities: Almagro 34%, draw 33%, Nueva Chicago 32%.
How many goals are expected in Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Almagro 1.04 · Nueva Chicago 1), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.