Prediction: Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions
Expected goals: 4.93 (Ulverstone 1.47 · Kingborough Lions 3.47). The model gives 7% home, 9% draw, 84% away. Under 5.25 goals (54%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 1-3.
Recent form leaves Ulverstone with 0 wins, 0 draws and 10 losses over 10 games; Kingborough Lions has piled up 8-1-1 in the same span. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Ulverstone won 0 and Kingborough Lions 1.
| Ulverstone | Draw | Kingborough Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 14% | 74% |
| Market | 3% | 5% | 92% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kingborough Lions (rating 1370 vs 1608).
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulverstone | Kingborough Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 3.5 | 3.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.7 | 1.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 2.9 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulverstone 0–0–1 Kingborough Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Kingborough Lions | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Ulverstone |
Standings · Australia Tasmania Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 52 | 11 | 35 |
| 2 | Kingborough Lions | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Devonport City | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 14 | 28 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 24 |
| 5 | Riverside Olympic | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 20 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras FC | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Glenorchy Knights FC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 10 |
| 8 | South East United FC | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 9 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 42 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ulverstone | Kingborough Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Riverside Olympic | 0-6 L | 3-0 W |
| Launceston United | 2-3 L | 7-1 W |
| Launceston City | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Devonport City | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| South East United FC | 0-2 L | 9-0 W |
| Clarence Zebras FC | 0-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Glenorchy Knights FC | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| South Hobart | 0-6 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 8 L | 7 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Kingborough Lions (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulverstone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 10/05 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
Kingborough Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
7-0 | 9-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
4-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kingborough Lions win (84%). Probabilities: Ulverstone 7%, draw 9%, Kingborough Lions 84%.
How many goals are expected in Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions?
The model expects 4.93 goals (Ulverstone 1.47 · Kingborough Lions 3.47), with a 54% chance of under 5.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulverstone vs Kingborough Lions?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.