Football · Australia Tasmania Premier League · 18/07, 08:45
Prediction: Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.92Total
Launceston City1.64
Kingborough Lions2.28
1X2
Launceston City
Draw
Kingborough Lions
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Launceston City
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Kingborough Lions
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Launceston City
4–1–1
Kingborough Lions
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Launceston City 1552 · Kingborough Lions 1595
| Launceston City | Draw | Kingborough Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| Market | 27% | 21% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kingborough Lions (rating 1552 vs 1595).
- H2H favours Launceston City: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Launceston City | Kingborough Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.8 | 3.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.1 | 3.5 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Launceston City 4–1–1 Kingborough Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Kingborough Lions | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Launceston City |
| 23/08/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Kingborough Lions | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Launceston City |
| 28/06/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Kingborough Lions |
| 26/04/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston City | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Kingborough Lions |
| 19/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Kingborough Lions | 0-4 HT 0-4 | Launceston City |
| 17/08/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Kingborough Lions | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Launceston City |
Standings · Australia Tasmania Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 54 | 12 | 38 |
| 2 | Kingborough Lions | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 43 | 14 | 34 |
| 3 | Devonport City | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 27 |
| 5 | Riverside Olympic | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 23 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras FC | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 21 |
| 7 | South East United FC | 15 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 12 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights FC | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 11 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 43 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 54 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Launceston City | Kingborough Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Clarence Zebras FC | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| South East United FC | 1-0 W | 9-0 W |
| Ulverstone | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Glenorchy Knights FC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Devonport City | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| South Hobart | 1-8 L | 1-1 D |
| Launceston United | 7-1 W | 7-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Kingborough Lions (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Launceston City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-2 | 1-8 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
6-0 | 7-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Kingborough Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
7-0 | 9-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
4-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kingborough Lions win (52%). Probabilities: Launceston City 27%, draw 21%, Kingborough Lions 52%.
How many goals are expected in Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions?
The model expects 3.92 goals (Launceston City 1.64 · Kingborough Lions 2.28), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.