Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 03/08, 18:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus II · FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.64Total

Parnu JK Vaprus II2.6

FC Levadia Tallinn U192.04

1X2

50% 20% 30%

Parnu JK Vaprus II Draw FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Levadia Tallinn U19 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus II 3–1 FC Levadia Tallinn U19 (4 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus II4-2FC Levadia Tallinn U19
FC Levadia Tallinn U192-0Parnu JK Vaprus II
FC Levadia Tallinn U191-2Parnu JK Vaprus II
Parnu JK Vaprus II4-1FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1516 · FC Levadia Tallinn U19 1533

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
Our model	50%	20%	30%
Market	50%	20%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 4.64 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus II: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 2.3	2.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.98

Under 4.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:27 +3’	1.80	4.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus II 3–0–1 FC Levadia Tallinn U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	4-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
15/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2-0 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus II
17/08/25 Estonia II Liiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	1-2 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus II
04/04/25 Estonia II Liiga	Parnu JK Vaprus II	4-1 HT 2-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	21	13	3	5	59	41	42
2	JK Trans Narva II	20	12	2	6	53	29	38
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	21	12	2	7	50	47	38
4	JK Viljandi Tulevik	21	11	3	7	55	39	36
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	20	10	2	8	57	46	32
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	20	10	2	8	48	39	32
7	FA Tartu Kalev	20	9	1	10	54	42	28
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	20	9	0	11	33	52	27
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	21	4	2	15	42	56	14
10	Tallinna JK Legion	20	3	1	16	18	78	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus II	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
JK Trans Narva II	1-4 L	4-4 D
Johvi FC Phoenix	2-4 L	2-0 W
Tallinna JK Legion	4-1 W	6-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-2 D	4-1 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-3 L	3-2 W
FA Tartu Kalev	2-1 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U19 (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-4	2	8	L
12/07	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-4	2-4	6	4	L
22/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
19/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
15/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	4-2	1	6	W
01/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-3	0	7	L
25/05	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-4	3	3	L
17/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	4-0	3	6	W
10/05	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
03/05	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	5-0	7-2	5	7	W

FC Levadia Tallinn U19

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
12/07	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
04/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	10	3	W
22/06	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
19/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-2	1	4	W
15/06	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-4	4	6	L
01/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	6-0	12	7	W
29/05	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
17/05	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
10/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-4	4-4	9	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus II win (50%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus II 50%, draw 20%, FC Levadia Tallinn U19 30%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19?

The model expects 4.64 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus II 2.6 · FC Levadia Tallinn U19 2.04), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.