Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 09/08, 14:30

Prediction: Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II

Team pages: Tallinna JK Legion · JK Trans Narva II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.56Total

Tallinna JK Legion1.28

JK Trans Narva II3.28

1X2

7% 10% 83%

Tallinna JK Legion Draw JK Trans Narva II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Tallinna JK Legion 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLWLL

JK Trans Narva II 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Tallinna JK Legion 0–6 JK Trans Narva II (6 last)

JK Trans Narva II5-0Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion0-4JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II5-1Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion0-4JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II2-0Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion2-4JK Trans Narva II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tallinna JK Legion 1388 · JK Trans Narva II 1574

	Tallinna JK Legion	Draw	JK Trans Narva II
Our model	11%	14%	75%
Market	4%	6%	90%

Estimated total (ours) 4.56 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Trans Narva II (rating 1388 vs 1574).
H2H favours JK Trans Narva II: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tallinna JK Legion	JK Trans Narva II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 4	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 2	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	3.7 / 8.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

123.00

X15.00

21.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.75)1.88

2 (-3.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 51.85

Under 51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	23.00 → 23.00	Bet365 23.00
X	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
2	1.05 → 1.05	Bet365 1.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:03	23.00	15.00	1.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tallinna JK Legion 0–0–6 JK Trans Narva II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	5-0 HT 1-0	Tallinna JK Legion
28/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	0-4 HT 0-1	JK Trans Narva II
16/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	5-1 HT 3-0	Tallinna JK Legion
29/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	0-4 HT 0-2	JK Trans Narva II
26/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	2-0 HT 1-0	Tallinna JK Legion
28/10/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	2-4 HT 1-1	JK Trans Narva II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	21	13	3	5	59	41	42
2	JK Trans Narva II	20	12	2	6	53	29	38
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	21	12	2	7	50	47	38
4	JK Viljandi Tulevik	21	11	3	7	55	39	36
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	21	11	2	8	51	41	35
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	21	10	2	9	59	49	32
7	FA Tartu Kalev	21	10	1	10	57	43	31
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	21	9	0	12	34	55	27
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	21	4	2	15	42	56	14
10	Tallinna JK Legion	20	3	1	16	18	78	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tallinna JK Legion	JK Trans Narva II
Johvi FC Phoenix	0-1 L	1-1 D
Tabasalu FC Charma	2-0 W	5-0 W
FA Tartu Kalev	2-10 L	3-2 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-3 L	5-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus II	1-4 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva II (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tallinna JK Legion

LWLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/07	Saku Sporting Estonia Cup	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
18/07	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/07	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-5	2-10	–	–	L
05/07	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
22/06	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-4	1	5	L
18/06	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-6	1	4	L
01/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	0-6	2	7	L
27/05	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	3-2	5	3	W
24/05	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	0-6	4	1	L

JK Trans Narva II

LLDWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
19/07	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	4-1	4	8	W
12/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-2	12	6	L
05/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	2-1	14	4	W
22/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
18/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-2	8	4	W
31/05	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
28/05	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
24/05	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
17/05	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-4	0-4	12	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Trans Narva II win (83%). Probabilities: Tallinna JK Legion 7%, draw 10%, JK Trans Narva II 83%.

How many goals are expected in Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model expects 4.56 goals (Tallinna JK Legion 1.28 · JK Trans Narva II 3.28), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tallinna JK Legion vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.