Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 09/08, 14:30

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Johvi FC Phoenix

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev II · Johvi FC Phoenix

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.44Total

JK Tallinna Kalev II1.97

Johvi FC Phoenix2.46

1X2

31% 20% 49%

JK Tallinna Kalev II Draw Johvi FC Phoenix

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Johvi FC Phoenix 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev II 0–2 Johvi FC Phoenix (2 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev II1-2Johvi FC Phoenix
Johvi FC Phoenix2-1JK Tallinna Kalev II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1481 · Johvi FC Phoenix 1545

	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Draw	Johvi FC Phoenix
Our model	31%	20%	49%
Market	31%	20%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 4.44 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Johvi FC Phoenix (rating 1481 vs 1545).
H2H favours Johvi FC Phoenix: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Johvi FC Phoenix
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.7	2.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.4	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X4.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.52.00

Under 4.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:03	2.88	4.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev II 0–0–2 Johvi FC Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	1-2 HT 1-1	Johvi FC Phoenix
14/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	2-1 HT 1-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	21	13	3	5	59	41	42
2	JK Trans Narva II	20	12	2	6	53	29	38
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	21	12	2	7	50	47	38
4	JK Viljandi Tulevik	21	11	3	7	55	39	36
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	21	11	2	8	51	41	35
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	21	10	2	9	59	49	32
7	FA Tartu Kalev	21	10	1	10	57	43	31
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	21	9	0	12	34	55	27
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	21	4	2	15	42	56	14
10	Tallinna JK Legion	20	3	1	16	18	78	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Johvi FC Phoenix
JK Trans Narva II	0-5 L	1-1 D
JK Tammeka Tartu II	4-5 L	2-4 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	1-4 L	0-2 L
Tallinna JK Legion	3-2 W	1-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-2 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Johvi FC Phoenix (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Tallinna Kalev II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
23/07	Rakvere FC Freedom Estonia Cup	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
20/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-1	4-5	4	6	L
12/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
05/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	3-2	5	4	W
22/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-3	1	1	L
19/06	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
13/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
10/06	JK Arsenal JA Pohja-Tallinna JK Volta Um Estonia Cup	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
01/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	7-2	2	6	W

Johvi FC Phoenix

DLWLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
22/07	FC Hell Hunt Estonia Cup	5-1	8-1	–	–	W
12/07	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	4-1	4-2	4	4	W
22/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
18/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	6-1	4	4	W
14/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-4	10	5	L
10/06	FC Elva III Estonia Cup	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
06/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-4	0	3	L
28/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Johvi FC Phoenix win (49%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev II 31%, draw 20%, Johvi FC Phoenix 49%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

The model expects 4.44 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev II 1.97 · Johvi FC Phoenix 2.46), with a 53% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.