Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 15/08, 13:30

Prediction: FA Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus II

Team pages: FA Tartu Kalev · Parnu JK Vaprus II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.37Total

FA Tartu Kalev2.24

Parnu JK Vaprus II2.12

1X2

42% 21% 37%

FA Tartu Kalev Draw Parnu JK Vaprus II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

FA Tartu Kalev 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWWWWL

Parnu JK Vaprus II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWLLLD

Head-to-head

FA Tartu Kalev 0–2 Parnu JK Vaprus II (2 last)

FA Tartu Kalev1-2Parnu JK Vaprus II
Parnu JK Vaprus II5-1FA Tartu Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FA Tartu Kalev 1485 · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1503

	FA Tartu Kalev	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus II
Our model	42%	21%	37%
Market	42%	21%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus II: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FA Tartu Kalev	Parnu JK Vaprus II
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 3	2.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1	1.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6.5	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 1.8 · xG: 5.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
06:23 +10’	2.15	4.20	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FA Tartu Kalev 0–0–2 Parnu JK Vaprus II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	1-2 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus II
08/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	5-1 HT 2-1	FA Tartu Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	22	13	4	5	61	43	43
2	JK Trans Narva II	21	13	2	6	56	30	41
3	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	22	12	2	8	54	41	38
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	22	12	2	8	51	50	38
5	JK Viljandi Tulevik	22	11	3	8	57	43	36
6	FA Tartu Kalev	22	11	1	10	61	45	34
7	Parnu JK Vaprus II	22	10	3	9	61	51	33
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	22	9	0	13	34	58	27
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	22	5	2	15	45	57	17
10	Tallinna JK Legion	21	3	1	17	19	81	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FA Tartu Kalev	Parnu JK Vaprus II
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	5-0 W	2-3 L
Tallinna JK Legion	10-2 W	4-1 W
JK Trans Narva II	2-3 L	1-4 L
JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-7 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FA Tartu Kalev (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Cup	0-2	0-8	1	3	L
08/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-2	11	5	W
23/07	JK Kuusalu Kalev Estonia Cup	5-0	7-0	19	3	W
19/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
12/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-1	10-2	–	–	W
21/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
18/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
10/06	Paide Linnameeskond III Estonia Cup	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-7	3	6	L

Parnu JK Vaprus II

WLLWDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-2	5	7	D
03/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-3	13	5	L
19/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-4	2	8	L
12/07	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-4	2-4	6	4	L
22/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
19/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
15/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	4-2	1	6	W
01/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-3	0	7	L
25/05	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-4	3	3	L
17/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	4-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FA Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FA Tartu Kalev win (42%). Probabilities: FA Tartu Kalev 42%, draw 21%, Parnu JK Vaprus II 37%.

How many goals are expected in FA Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

The model expects 4.37 goals (FA Tartu Kalev 2.24 · Parnu JK Vaprus II 2.12), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FA Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.