Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 23/08, 14:00

Prediction: JK Tammeka Tartu II vs Johvi FC Phoenix

Team pages: JK Tammeka Tartu II · Johvi FC Phoenix

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.42Total

JK Tammeka Tartu II2.35

Johvi FC Phoenix2.06

1X2

45% 21% 34%

JK Tammeka Tartu II Draw Johvi FC Phoenix

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tammeka Tartu II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWDDL

Johvi FC Phoenix 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDWLLD

Head-to-head

JK Tammeka Tartu II 4–1–1 Johvi FC Phoenix (6 last)

Johvi FC Phoenix2-4JK Tammeka Tartu II
JK Tammeka Tartu II6-1Johvi FC Phoenix
JK Tammeka Tartu II1-1Johvi FC Phoenix
Johvi FC Phoenix7-1JK Tammeka Tartu II
Johvi FC Phoenix0-4JK Tammeka Tartu II
JK Tammeka Tartu II3-0Johvi FC Phoenix

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tammeka Tartu II 1516 · Johvi FC Phoenix 1470

	JK Tammeka Tartu II	Draw	Johvi FC Phoenix
Our model	45%	21%	34%
Market	45%	21%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu II (rating 1516 vs 1470).
H2H favours JK Tammeka Tartu II: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tammeka Tartu II	Johvi FC Phoenix
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.9	3.3 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.07 ★
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	3.40 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:50 +6’	1.67	4.50	3.40
11:21 +50’	1.70▲	4.50	3.30▼
11:06 +2’	2.00▲	4.20▼	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:18 +1’	1.88	4.11	2.86
06:05 +1’	1.86▼	4.13▲	2.89▲
10:05 +1’	1.83▼	4.31▲	2.88▼
11:07 +2’	2.07▲	4.09▼	2.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tammeka Tartu II 4–1–1 Johvi FC Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	2-4 HT 1-1	JK Tammeka Tartu II
22/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tammeka Tartu II	6-1 HT 4-0	Johvi FC Phoenix
19/09/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tammeka Tartu II	1-1 HT 1-1	Johvi FC Phoenix
03/08/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	7-1 HT 5-1	JK Tammeka Tartu II
26/05/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	0-4 HT 0-2	JK Tammeka Tartu II
10/03/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tammeka Tartu II	3-0 HT 2-0	Johvi FC Phoenix

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	24	14	4	6	65	45	46
2	JK Trans Narva II	23	14	2	7	57	31	44
3	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	24	14	2	8	59	42	44
4	FA Tartu Kalev	24	13	1	10	64	46	40
5	Johvi FC Phoenix	24	12	3	9	53	53	39
6	JK Viljandi Tulevik	24	11	4	9	60	49	37
7	Parnu JK Vaprus II	24	10	4	10	63	54	34
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	24	9	2	13	37	61	29
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	24	5	4	15	49	61	19
10	Tallinna JK Legion	23	3	2	18	22	87	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tammeka Tartu II	Johvi FC Phoenix
Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-2 D	4-2 W
JK Viljandi Tulevik	0-0 D	0-0 D
JK Tallinna Kalev II	5-4 W	1-3 L
JK Trans Narva II	2-1 W	0-1 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2-3 L	0-2 L
Tabasalu FC Charma	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tammeka Tartu II

WWLDLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
10/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-2	7	7	D
01/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
20/07	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-3	5-4	3	6	W
12/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
22/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
18/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
14/06	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	4-2	9	5	W
01/06	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-2	7	7	W

Johvi FC Phoenix

LLWLWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-2	17	2	D
15/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-3	8	8	L
01/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
12/07	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	4-1	4-2	4	4	W
22/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
18/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	6-1	4	4	W
14/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-4	10	5	L
06/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-4	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tammeka Tartu II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tammeka Tartu II win (45%). Probabilities: JK Tammeka Tartu II 45%, draw 21%, Johvi FC Phoenix 34%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tammeka Tartu II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

The model expects 4.42 goals (JK Tammeka Tartu II 2.35 · Johvi FC Phoenix 2.06), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tammeka Tartu II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.