Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 24/08, 18:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus II · Tabasalu FC Charma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Parnu JK Vaprus II2.41

Tabasalu FC Charma1.59

1X2

56% 20% 25%

Parnu JK Vaprus II Draw Tabasalu FC Charma

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLDLD

Tabasalu FC Charma 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLLDD

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–2 Tabasalu FC Charma (3 last)

Tabasalu FC Charma1-2Parnu JK Vaprus II
Tabasalu FC Charma2-1Parnu JK Vaprus II
Tabasalu FC Charma4-3Parnu JK Vaprus II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1480 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1485

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Draw	Tabasalu FC Charma
Our model	55%	21%	24%
Market	56%	19%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tabasalu FC Charma: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Tabasalu FC Charma
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.4	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.75

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.20 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:28 +4’	1.50	4.75	4.20
13:00 +8’	1.61▲	4.75	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–0–2 Tabasalu FC Charma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	1-2 HT 1-1	Parnu JK Vaprus II
23/04/18 Estonia II Liiga	Tabasalu FC Charma	2-1 HT 2-1	Parnu JK Vaprus II
20/05/17 Estonia II Liiga	Tabasalu FC Charma	4-3 HT 1-1	Parnu JK Vaprus II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	24	14	4	6	65	45	46
2	JK Trans Narva II	23	14	2	7	57	31	44
3	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	24	14	2	8	59	42	44
4	FA Tartu Kalev	24	13	1	10	64	46	40
5	Johvi FC Phoenix	24	12	3	9	53	53	39
6	JK Viljandi Tulevik	24	11	4	9	60	49	37
7	Parnu JK Vaprus II	24	10	4	10	63	54	34
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	24	9	2	13	37	61	29
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	24	5	4	15	49	61	19
10	Tallinna JK Legion	23	3	2	18	22	87	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Tabasalu FC Charma
JK Viljandi Tulevik	2-2 D	2-0 W
FA Tartu Kalev	0-1 L	3-1 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-2 D	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2-3 L	0-3 L
JK Trans Narva II	1-4 L	0-5 L
Johvi FC Phoenix	2-4 L	2-2 D
Tallinna JK Legion	4-1 W	0-2 L
JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tabasalu FC Charma (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus II

LWDWLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
15/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-2	5	7	D
03/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-3	13	5	L
19/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-4	2	8	L
12/07	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-4	2-4	6	4	L
22/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
19/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
15/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	4-2	1	6	W
01/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-3	0	7	L

Tabasalu FC Charma

LLWWWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-2	5	2	D
16/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
18/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
21/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
18/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
13/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
31/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-5	3	3	L
27/05	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus II win (56%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus II 56%, draw 20%, Tabasalu FC Charma 25%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus II 2.41 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1.59), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.