Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 10/10, 11:30

Prediction: FA Tartu Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Team pages: FA Tartu Kalev · FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.13Total

FA Tartu Kalev2.3

FC Levadia Tallinn U191.83

1X2

49% 21% 31%

FA Tartu Kalev Draw FC Levadia Tallinn U19

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FA Tartu Kalev 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Levadia Tallinn U19 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FA Tartu Kalev 2–1 FC Levadia Tallinn U19 (3 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn U190-5FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev2-0FC Levadia Tallinn U19
FC Levadia Tallinn U193-1FA Tartu Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FA Tartu Kalev 1523 · FC Levadia Tallinn U19 1558

	FA Tartu Kalev	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
Our model	48%	21%	31%
Market	49%	20%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.13 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FA Tartu Kalev: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FA Tartu Kalev	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.7	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.3	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	2.20 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:00 +3’	2.38	4.20	2.20
06:06 +29’	2.30▼	4.20	2.30▲
08:52 +10’	2.05▼	4.33▲	2.50▲
10:16 +6’	1.83▼	4.50▲	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:55 +66’	2.38	3.94	2.22
08:58 +4’	2.12▼	4.35▲	2.36▲
10:07 +15’	1.93▼	4.46▲	2.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FA Tartu Kalev 2–0–1 FC Levadia Tallinn U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	0-5 HT 0-1	FA Tartu Kalev
29/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
28/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	3-1 HT 2-1	FA Tartu Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	30	20	3	7	71	36	63
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	31	19	2	10	78	52	59
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71	68	54
4	JK Tammeka Tartu II	30	15	4	11	74	60	49
5	JK Viljandi Tulevik	31	14	5	12	81	64	47
6	FA Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72	58	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus II	30	14	4	12	95	62	46
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	30	10	3	17	44	81	33
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	31	8	5	18	63	78	29
10	Tallinna JK Legion	31	3	3	25	26	116	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FA Tartu Kalev	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
JK Viljandi Tulevik	1-6 L	3-5 L
Tallinna JK Legion	2-1 W	3-0 W
JK Trans Narva II	0-1 L	0-1 L
Johvi FC Phoenix	0-3 L	6-2 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U19 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-5	1-6	7	4	L
13/09	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
10/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
25/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-2	11	5	W
19/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
12/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-1	10-2	–	–	W

FC Levadia Tallinn U19

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	3-0	4	3	W
21/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
15/09	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-4	3-5	4	5	L
11/09	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
06/09	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	6-2	9	4	W
31/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	5-2	4	9	W
24/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-0	10	1	W
16/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
09/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	3-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FA Tartu Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FA Tartu Kalev win (49%). Probabilities: FA Tartu Kalev 49%, draw 21%, FC Levadia Tallinn U19 31%.

How many goals are expected in FA Tartu Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19?

The model expects 4.13 goals (FA Tartu Kalev 2.3 · FC Levadia Tallinn U19 1.83), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FA Tartu Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn U19?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.