Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 17/10, 11:30

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Viljandi Tulevik

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus II · JK Viljandi Tulevik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.73Total

Parnu JK Vaprus II2.75

JK Viljandi Tulevik1.98

1X2

54% 19% 27%

Parnu JK Vaprus II Draw JK Viljandi Tulevik

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLLWDW

JK Viljandi Tulevik 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–1–1 JK Viljandi Tulevik (3 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus II2-2JK Viljandi Tulevik
JK Viljandi Tulevik5-3Parnu JK Vaprus II
Parnu JK Vaprus II5-2JK Viljandi Tulevik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1528 · JK Viljandi Tulevik 1515

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Draw	JK Viljandi Tulevik
Our model	54%	19%	27%
Market	54%	19%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.73 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	JK Viljandi Tulevik
Goals for / against (FT)	3.9 / 1.4	2.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1	1.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.2	1.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.75

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.82

Under 4.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.99 ★
2	3.60 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.36

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +7’	1.60	4.75	3.60
11:15 +2’	1.67▲	4.75	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:41 +22’	1.61	4.89	3.33
00:26 +38’	1.67▲	4.80▼	3.15▼
09:31 +33’	1.68▲	4.91▲	3.20▲
11:05 +13’	1.63▼	4.99▲	3.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–1–1 JK Viljandi Tulevik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-2 HT 1-2	JK Viljandi Tulevik
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Viljandi Tulevik	5-3 HT 1-2	Parnu JK Vaprus II
15/06/25 Estonia II Liiga	Parnu JK Vaprus II	5-2 HT 1-1	JK Viljandi Tulevik

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	32	22	3	7	74	36	69
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	32	20	2	10	80	52	62
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	32	17	4	11	79	62	55
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	32	17	3	12	72	72	54
5	JK Viljandi Tulevik	33	16	5	12	86	67	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	33	15	5	13	100	67	50
7	FA Tartu Kalev	32	15	2	15	72	62	47
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	32	10	3	19	46	85	33
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	32	8	6	18	64	79	30
10	Tallinna JK Legion	32	3	3	26	27	118	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus II	JK Viljandi Tulevik
JK Tallinna Kalev II	1-1 D	1-3 L
Tallinna JK Legion	12-0 W	2-1 W
FA Tartu Kalev	0-4 L	6-1 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Parnu JK Vaprus II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus II

DDWWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/10	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
18/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-0	12-0	6	3	W
13/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
10/09	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
06/09	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	7-0	3	0	W
30/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	5-1	7	6	W
24/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	6-0	9	2	W
20/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
10/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-2	5	7	D

JK Viljandi Tulevik

LDDLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
26/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	5-0	6-1	6	4	W
15/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	4-1	5-3	0	5	W
10/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-3	4	10	L
05/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
30/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
23/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-3	9	2	D
20/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Viljandi Tulevik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus II win (54%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus II 54%, draw 19%, JK Viljandi Tulevik 27%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Viljandi Tulevik?

The model expects 4.73 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus II 2.75 · JK Viljandi Tulevik 1.98), with a 51% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Viljandi Tulevik?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.