Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 14/10, 17:00
Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma
Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus II · Tabasalu FC Charma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.69Total
Parnu JK Vaprus II3.34
Tabasalu FC Charma1.34
1X2
Parnu JK Vaprus II
Draw
Tabasalu FC Charma
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Parnu JK Vaprus II
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Tabasalu FC Charma
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Parnu JK Vaprus II
2–2
Tabasalu FC Charma
(4 last)
- Parnu JK Vaprus II6-0Tabasalu FC Charma
- Tabasalu FC Charma1-2Parnu JK Vaprus II
- Tabasalu FC Charma2-1Parnu JK Vaprus II
- Tabasalu FC Charma4-3Parnu JK Vaprus II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1523 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1402
| Parnu JK Vaprus II | Draw | Tabasalu FC Charma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 77% | 11% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.69 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Parnu JK Vaprus II (rating 1523 vs 1402).
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Parnu JK Vaprus II | Tabasalu FC Charma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.9 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.2 | 2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus II 2–0–2 Tabasalu FC Charma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B | Parnu JK Vaprus II | 6-0 HT 4-0 | Tabasalu FC Charma |
| 11/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B | Tabasalu FC Charma | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Parnu JK Vaprus II |
| 23/04/18 Estonia II Liiga | Tabasalu FC Charma | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Parnu JK Vaprus II |
| 20/05/17 Estonia II Liiga | Tabasalu FC Charma | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Parnu JK Vaprus II |
Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JK Trans Narva II | 31 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 72 | 36 | 66 |
| 2 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 | 32 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 80 | 52 | 62 |
| 3 | Johvi FC Phoenix | 31 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 71 | 69 | 54 |
| 4 | JK Tammeka Tartu II | 31 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 76 | 61 | 52 |
| 5 | JK Viljandi Tulevik | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 83 | 65 | 50 |
| 6 | Parnu JK Vaprus II | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 96 | 63 | 47 |
| 7 | FA Tartu Kalev | 31 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 72 | 60 | 47 |
| 8 | Tabasalu FC Charma | 31 | 10 | 3 | 18 | 45 | 83 | 33 |
| 9 | JK Tallinna Kalev II | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 64 | 79 | 30 |
| 10 | Tallinna JK Legion | 32 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 27 | 118 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Parnu JK Vaprus II | Tabasalu FC Charma |
|---|---|---|
| JK Tallinna Kalev II | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Tallinna JK Legion | 12-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Johvi FC Phoenix | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| JK Tammeka Tartu II | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| FC Levadia Tallinn U19 | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Parnu JK Vaprus II (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Parnu JK Vaprus II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 18/09 | Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B |
5-0 | 12-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/09 | Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
2-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 24/08 | Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B |
4-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 20/08 | JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 03/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-2 | 2-3 | 13 | 5 | L |
Tabasalu FC Charma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/09 | Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-4 | 0-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 09/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus II win (76%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus II 76%, draw 12%, Tabasalu FC Charma 11%.
How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?
The model expects 4.69 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus II 3.34 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.