Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 11/10, 11:30

Prediction: Johvi FC Phoenix vs JK Trans Narva II

Team pages: Johvi FC Phoenix · JK Trans Narva II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Johvi FC Phoenix1.67

JK Trans Narva II1.83

1X2

35% 23% 42%

Johvi FC Phoenix Draw JK Trans Narva II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Johvi FC Phoenix 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWLWWW

JK Trans Narva II 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Johvi FC Phoenix 3–1–2 JK Trans Narva II (6 last)

JK Trans Narva II1-0Johvi FC Phoenix
JK Trans Narva II1-1Johvi FC Phoenix
Johvi FC Phoenix4-2JK Trans Narva II
Johvi FC Phoenix1-0JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II4-2Johvi FC Phoenix
JK Trans Narva II3-4Johvi FC Phoenix

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Johvi FC Phoenix 1541 · JK Trans Narva II 1585

	Johvi FC Phoenix	Draw	JK Trans Narva II
Our model	35%	24%	41%
Market	36%	21%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Trans Narva II (rating 1541 vs 1585).
H2H favours Johvi FC Phoenix: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Johvi FC Phoenix	JK Trans Narva II
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.7	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X4.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:14 +9’	2.50	4.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Johvi FC Phoenix 3–1–2 JK Trans Narva II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	1-0 HT 0-0	Johvi FC Phoenix
28/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	1-1 HT 0-1	Johvi FC Phoenix
28/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	4-2 HT 2-2	JK Trans Narva II
08/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	1-0 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva II
10/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	4-2 HT 1-1	Johvi FC Phoenix
06/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	3-4 HT 2-1	Johvi FC Phoenix

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	30	20	3	7	71	36	63
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	31	19	2	10	78	52	59
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71	68	54
4	JK Tammeka Tartu II	30	15	4	11	74	60	49
5	JK Viljandi Tulevik	31	14	5	12	81	64	47
6	FA Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72	58	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus II	30	14	4	12	95	62	46
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	30	10	3	17	44	81	33
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	31	8	5	18	63	78	29
10	Tallinna JK Legion	31	3	3	25	26	116	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Johvi FC Phoenix	JK Trans Narva II
Tabasalu FC Charma	3-2 W	4-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	4-3 W	2-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2-6 L	1-0 W
FA Tartu Kalev	3-0 W	1-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	3-2 W	1-0 W
Tallinna JK Legion	1-0 W	2-1 W
JK Viljandi Tulevik	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva II (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Johvi FC Phoenix

DWLLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
14/09	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-3	2	13	W
10/09	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	3-2	8	8	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-6	2	4	L
29/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	3-0	8	7	W
23/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	2	6	W
15/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-3	8	8	L
01/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	12	6	D

JK Trans Narva II

WWLDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
19/09	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
15/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
11/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
06/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
29/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
23/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-3	6	2	D
19/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
15/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Johvi FC Phoenix vs JK Trans Narva II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Trans Narva II win (42%). Probabilities: Johvi FC Phoenix 35%, draw 23%, JK Trans Narva II 42%.

How many goals are expected in Johvi FC Phoenix vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Johvi FC Phoenix 1.67 · JK Trans Narva II 1.83), with a 57% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Johvi FC Phoenix vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.