Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 11/10, 11:30

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev II · Parnu JK Vaprus II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.58Total

JK Tallinna Kalev II2.27

Parnu JK Vaprus II2.32

1X2

39% 20% 41%

JK Tallinna Kalev II Draw Parnu JK Vaprus II

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWLLW

Parnu JK Vaprus II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWWLLW

Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev II 0–1–2 Parnu JK Vaprus II (3 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus II7-0JK Tallinna Kalev II
Parnu JK Vaprus II2-2JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Tallinna Kalev II2-3Parnu JK Vaprus II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1497 · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1505

	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus II
Our model	39%	20%	41%
Market	39%	20%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.58 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus II: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Parnu JK Vaprus II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.2	3.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.88

Under 4.51.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:20 +6’	2.30	4.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev II 0–1–2 Parnu JK Vaprus II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	7-0 HT 2-0	JK Tallinna Kalev II
19/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-2 HT 2-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II
28/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-3 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	30	20	3	7	71	36	63
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	31	19	2	10	78	52	59
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71	68	54
4	JK Tammeka Tartu II	30	15	4	11	74	60	49
5	JK Viljandi Tulevik	31	14	5	12	81	64	47
6	FA Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72	58	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus II	30	14	4	12	95	62	46
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	30	10	3	17	44	81	33
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	31	8	5	18	63	78	29
10	Tallinna JK Legion	31	3	3	25	26	116	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Parnu JK Vaprus II
JK Viljandi Tulevik	3-1 W	2-2 D
JK Trans Narva II	1-2 L	1-4 L
Johvi FC Phoenix	3-4 L	2-3 L
Tabasalu FC Charma	4-1 W	6-0 W
FA Tartu Kalev	1-1 D	0-4 L
Tallinna JK Legion	3-3 D	12-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tallinna Kalev II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tallinna Kalev II

WDDDWLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
19/09	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
14/09	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	13	L
11/09	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
06/09	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-7	3	0	L
30/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	8	1	W
25/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
21/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	8	3	D
16/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
09/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	6	8	W

Parnu JK Vaprus II

LLDDWWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-0	12-0	6	3	W
13/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
10/09	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
06/09	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	7-0	3	0	W
30/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	5-1	7	6	W
24/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	6-0	9	2	W
20/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
10/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-2	5	7	D
03/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-3	13	5	L
19/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-4	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Parnu JK Vaprus II win (41%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev II 39%, draw 20%, Parnu JK Vaprus II 41%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

The model expects 4.58 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev II 2.27 · Parnu JK Vaprus II 2.32), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.