Prediction: Johvi FC Phoenix vs FA Tartu Kalev
Expected goals: 4.58 (Johvi FC Phoenix 2.72 · FA Tartu Kalev 1.86). The model gives 56% home, 19% draw, 25% away. Over 4.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (64%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Johvi FC Phoenix is 5-1-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and FA Tartu Kalev 2-2-6 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Johvi FC Phoenix and 2 for FA Tartu Kalev, with 1 draw.
| Johvi FC Phoenix | Draw | FA Tartu Kalev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 19% | 25% |
| Market | 55% | 20% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Johvi FC Phoenix (rating 1514 vs 1444).
- H2H favours Johvi FC Phoenix: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Johvi FC Phoenix | FA Tartu Kalev | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 2.3 | 2.3 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.8 | 3.5 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Johvi FC Phoenix 3–1–2 FA Tartu Kalev
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B | Johvi FC Phoenix | 4-3 HT 2-1 | FA Tartu Kalev |
| 27/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga B | Johvi FC Phoenix | 3-1 HT 0-0 | FA Tartu Kalev |
| 07/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga B | Johvi FC Phoenix | 1-3 HT 1-1 | FA Tartu Kalev |
| 30/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga B | Johvi FC Phoenix | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FA Tartu Kalev |
| 03/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga B | FA Tartu Kalev | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Johvi FC Phoenix |
| 02/11/24 Estonia Esiliiga B | FA Tartu Kalev | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Johvi FC Phoenix |
Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JK Tammeka Tartu II | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 33 | 35 |
| 2 | JK Viljandi Tulevik | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 35 | 34 |
| 3 | JK Trans Narva II | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 25 | 29 |
| 4 | Parnu JK Vaprus II | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 36 | 29 |
| 5 | Johvi FC Phoenix | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 43 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 31 | 26 |
| 7 | Tabasalu FC Charma | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 42 | 24 |
| 8 | FA Tartu Kalev | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 37 | 22 |
| 9 | JK Tallinna Kalev II | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 40 | 11 |
| 10 | Tallinna JK Legion | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 64 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Johvi FC Phoenix | FA Tartu Kalev |
|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn U19 | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Tallinna JK Legion | 6-1 W | 6-0 W |
| JK Tammeka Tartu II | 2-4 L | 2-2 D |
| JK Viljandi Tulevik | 2-4 L | 3-4 L |
| JK Trans Narva II | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Parnu JK Vaprus II | 4-3 W | 1-2 L |
| JK Tallinna Kalev II | 2-1 W | 2-7 L |
| Tabasalu FC Charma | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Johvi FC Phoenix
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/06 | Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B |
2-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 10/06 | FC Elva III Estonia Cup |
1-2 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 25/05 | Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B |
2-1 | 4-3 | 8 | 7 | W |
FA Tartu Kalev
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/06 | JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/06 | Paide Linnameeskond III Estonia Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/06 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 2-7 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 29/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B |
3-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 01/05 | Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 3-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Johvi FC Phoenix vs FA Tartu Kalev?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Johvi FC Phoenix win (56%). Probabilities: Johvi FC Phoenix 56%, draw 19%, FA Tartu Kalev 25%.
How many goals are expected in Johvi FC Phoenix vs FA Tartu Kalev?
The model expects 4.58 goals (Johvi FC Phoenix 2.72 · FA Tartu Kalev 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Johvi FC Phoenix vs FA Tartu Kalev?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.