Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 06/09, 11:30

Prediction: FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Trans Narva II

Team pages: FA Tartu Kalev · JK Trans Narva II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.27Total

FA Tartu Kalev1.87

JK Trans Narva II2.4

1X2

30% 21% 50%

FA Tartu Kalev Draw JK Trans Narva II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FA Tartu Kalev 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWWWDL

JK Trans Narva II 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLDW

Head-to-head

FA Tartu Kalev 2–1–3 JK Trans Narva II (6 last)

JK Trans Narva II3-2FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev3-0JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II6-1FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev1-1JK Trans Narva II
FA Tartu Kalev2-3JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II0-1FA Tartu Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FA Tartu Kalev 1494 · JK Trans Narva II 1578

	FA Tartu Kalev	Draw	JK Trans Narva II
Our model	30%	21%	50%
Market	30%	21%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 4.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Trans Narva II (rating 1494 vs 1578).
H2H favours JK Trans Narva II: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FA Tartu Kalev	JK Trans Narva II
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 2.6	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.4	3.1 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.33

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
01:01 +11’	3.00	4.33	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FA Tartu Kalev 2–1–3 JK Trans Narva II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	3-2 HT 1-0	FA Tartu Kalev
14/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	3-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva II
09/11/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	6-1 HT 2-1	FA Tartu Kalev
13/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	1-1 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva II
29/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	2-3 HT 2-2	JK Trans Narva II
06/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	0-1 HT 0-1	FA Tartu Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	26	16	2	8	65	44	50
2	JK Trans Narva II	25	15	3	7	64	34	48
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	26	14	4	8	69	53	46
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	26	14	3	9	59	55	45
5	FA Tartu Kalev	26	13	2	11	65	50	41
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	26	12	4	10	74	55	40
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	26	11	5	10	64	54	38
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	26	9	2	15	37	71	29
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	26	6	5	15	52	63	23
10	Tallinna JK Legion	25	3	2	20	23	93	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FA Tartu Kalev	JK Trans Narva II
Johvi FC Phoenix	0-3 L	1-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	1-1 D	5-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-1 W	1-2 L
JK Viljandi Tulevik	4-2 W	3-3 D
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	5-0 W	0-1 L
Tallinna JK Legion	10-2 W	3-1 W
Tabasalu FC Charma	1-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FA Tartu Kalev (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FA Tartu Kalev

LLLLWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
25/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-2	11	5	W
19/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
12/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-1	10-2	–	–	W
21/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
18/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
01/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-7	3	6	L

JK Trans Narva II

WWLWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
23/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-3	6	2	D
19/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
15/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
01/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
19/07	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	4-1	4	8	W
12/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
05/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	2-1	14	4	W
22/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Trans Narva II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Trans Narva II win (50%). Probabilities: FA Tartu Kalev 30%, draw 21%, JK Trans Narva II 50%.

How many goals are expected in FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model expects 4.27 goals (FA Tartu Kalev 1.87 · JK Trans Narva II 2.4), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Trans Narva II?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.