Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 11/09, 18:00

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Tabasalu FC Charma

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev II · Tabasalu FC Charma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.19Total

JK Tallinna Kalev II2.42

Tabasalu FC Charma1.77

1X2

52% 20% 28%

JK Tallinna Kalev II Draw Tabasalu FC Charma

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDDDWL

Tabasalu FC Charma 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLDLLW

Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev II 2–1–3 Tabasalu FC Charma (6 last)

Tabasalu FC Charma1-1JK Tallinna Kalev II
Tabasalu FC Charma2-1JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Tallinna Kalev II2-3Tabasalu FC Charma
JK Tallinna Kalev II4-2Tabasalu FC Charma
Tabasalu FC Charma1-3JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Tallinna Kalev II0-1Tabasalu FC Charma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1481 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1503

	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Draw	Tabasalu FC Charma
Our model	52%	21%	28%
Market	52%	20%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.19 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tabasalu FC Charma: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Tabasalu FC Charma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.1	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:18 +5’	1.73	4.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev II 2–1–3 Tabasalu FC Charma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	1-1 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II
13/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev II
02/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-3 HT 1-3	Tabasalu FC Charma
28/09/24 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev II	4-2 HT 2-0	Tabasalu FC Charma
24/08/24 Estonia Esiliiga	Tabasalu FC Charma	1-3 HT 1-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II
03/06/24 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev II	0-1 HT 0-1	Tabasalu FC Charma

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	27	17	2	8	71	46	53
2	JK Trans Narva II	26	16	3	7	65	34	51
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	27	14	4	9	71	56	46
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	27	14	3	10	61	61	45
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	27	13	4	10	81	55	43
6	FA Tartu Kalev	27	13	2	12	65	51	41
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	27	12	5	10	67	54	41
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	27	10	2	15	40	73	32
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	27	6	5	16	52	70	23
10	Tallinna JK Legion	26	3	2	21	23	96	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev II	Tabasalu FC Charma
Parnu JK Vaprus II	0-7 L	0-6 L
JK Viljandi Tulevik	2-1 W	2-0 W
FA Tartu Kalev	1-1 D	3-1 W
Tallinna JK Legion	3-3 D	0-2 L
JK Trans Narva II	0-5 L	0-4 L
JK Tammeka Tartu II	4-5 L	3-2 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	1-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tabasalu FC Charma (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tallinna Kalev II

WLLLWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-7	3	0	L
30/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	8	1	W
25/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
21/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	8	3	D
16/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
09/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	6	8	W
01/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
20/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-1	4-5	4	6	L
12/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
05/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	3-2	5	4	W

Tabasalu FC Charma

WWWWLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
29/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	0-4	2	2	L
24/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-4	0-6	6	2	L
16/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
18/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
21/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
18/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
13/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tallinna Kalev II win (52%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev II 52%, draw 20%, Tabasalu FC Charma 28%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

The model expects 4.19 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev II 2.42 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1.77), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev II vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.