Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 06/09, 11:30

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Tallinna Kalev II

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus II · JK Tallinna Kalev II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

Parnu JK Vaprus II2.8

JK Tallinna Kalev II1.73

1X2

60% 18% 22%

Parnu JK Vaprus II Draw JK Tallinna Kalev II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLDDWW

JK Tallinna Kalev II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–1–0 JK Tallinna Kalev II (2 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus II2-2JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Tallinna Kalev II2-3Parnu JK Vaprus II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1526 · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1497

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev II
Our model	59%	18%	22%
Market	60%	18%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	JK Tallinna Kalev II
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 2.1	2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	1.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X5.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:51 +3’	1.50	5.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–1–0 JK Tallinna Kalev II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-2 HT 2-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II
28/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-3 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	26	16	2	8	65	44	50
2	JK Trans Narva II	25	15	3	7	64	34	48
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	26	14	4	8	69	53	46
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	26	14	3	9	59	55	45
5	FA Tartu Kalev	26	13	2	11	65	50	41
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	26	12	4	10	74	55	40
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	26	11	5	10	64	54	38
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	26	9	2	15	37	71	29
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	26	6	5	15	52	63	23
10	Tallinna JK Legion	25	3	2	20	23	93	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus II	JK Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna JK Legion	5-1 W	3-3 D
Tabasalu FC Charma	6-0 W	1-1 D
JK Viljandi Tulevik	2-2 D	2-1 W
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-2 D	4-5 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2-3 L	1-4 L
JK Trans Narva II	1-4 L	0-5 L
Johvi FC Phoenix	2-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Parnu JK Vaprus II (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus II

WDWLLLDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	5-1	7	6	W
24/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	6-0	9	2	W
20/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
10/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-2	5	7	D
03/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-3	13	5	L
19/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-4	2	8	L
12/07	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-4	2-4	6	4	L
22/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
19/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
15/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	4-2	1	6	W

JK Tallinna Kalev II

LWLLLWDDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	8	1	W
25/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
21/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	8	3	D
16/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
09/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	6	8	W
01/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
20/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-1	4-5	4	6	L
12/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
05/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	3-2	5	4	W
22/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus II win (60%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus II 60%, draw 18%, JK Tallinna Kalev II 22%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

The model expects 4.53 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus II 2.8 · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1.73), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.