Football · Canada Premier League · 12/10, 01:00

Prediction: Pacific FC (CA) vs Atletico Ottawa

Team pages: Pacific FC (CA) · Atletico Ottawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Pacific FC (CA)1.5

Atletico Ottawa1.96

1X2

29% 23% 48%

Pacific FC (CA) Draw Atletico Ottawa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Pacific FC (CA) 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Ottawa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Pacific FC (CA) 0–2–4 Atletico Ottawa (6 last)

Atletico Ottawa0-0Pacific FC (CA)
Atletico Ottawa3-2Pacific FC (CA)
Pacific FC (CA)2-2Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa2-0Pacific FC (CA)
Pacific FC (CA)0-2Atletico Ottawa
Pacific FC (CA)0-1Atletico Ottawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pacific FC (CA) 1467 · Atletico Ottawa 1531

	Pacific FC (CA)	Draw	Atletico Ottawa
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	23%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1467 vs 1531).
H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pacific FC (CA)	Atletico Ottawa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.00

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.13 ★
2	1.80 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.92

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +3’	3.40	3.80	1.80
08:43 +4’	3.20▼	3.75▼	1.90▲
20:33 +13’	3.25▲	3.80▲	1.90
17:27 +61’	3.00▼	3.90▲	1.95▲
06:16 +3’	3.10▲	4.00▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +50’	3.09	4.01	1.93
07:10 +4’	3.05▼	4.13▲	1.92▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pacific FC (CA) 0–2–4 Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	0-0 HT 0-0	Pacific FC (CA)
26/07/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	3-2 HT 1-0	Pacific FC (CA)
31/05/26 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	2-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa
07/09/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-0 HT 0-0	Pacific FC (CA)
27/07/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	0-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
08/06/25 Canada Premier League	Pacific FC (CA)	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Ottawa

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	25	16	5	4	51	19	53
2	Forge FC	25	15	6	4	41	20	51
3	Atletico Ottawa	25	12	4	9	38	41	40
4	Vancouver FC	26	9	7	10	37	35	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	9	5	12	40	47	32
6	HFX Wanderers	25	7	6	12	38	42	27
7	Inter Toronto	25	6	9	10	40	56	27
8	Pacific FC (CA)	25	2	8	15	30	55	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pacific FC (CA)	Atletico Ottawa
Forge FC	0-3 L	0-3 L
Supra du Quebec	0-5 L	0-2 L
Inter Toronto	4-3 W	2-1 W
Vancouver FC	1-1 D	4-0 W
Cavalry FC	0-1 L	3-2 W
HFX Wanderers	4-3 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pacific FC (CA)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
04/10	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-1	0-5	5	3	L
27/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	4-3	4-3	5	7	W
20/09	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
10/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	3-3	3	10	D
05/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-1	4-3	3	3	W
23/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D

Atletico Ottawa

WWWLWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-1	3-2	7	6	W
26/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
20/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
13/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
05/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
20/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
16/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pacific FC (CA) vs Atletico Ottawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Ottawa win (48%). Probabilities: Pacific FC (CA) 29%, draw 23%, Atletico Ottawa 48%.

How many goals are expected in Pacific FC (CA) vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Pacific FC (CA) 1.5 · Atletico Ottawa 1.96), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pacific FC (CA) vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.