Football · Canada Premier League · 12/10, 22:00

Prediction: HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC

Team pages: HFX Wanderers · Cavalry FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

HFX Wanderers1.17

Cavalry FC1.87

1X2

23% 24% 53%

HFX Wanderers Draw Cavalry FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

HFX Wanderers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWWLD

Cavalry FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWLL

Head-to-head

HFX Wanderers 0–3–3 Cavalry FC (6 last)

HFX Wanderers1-3Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC1-1HFX Wanderers
Cavalry FC2-0HFX Wanderers
Cavalry FC3-1HFX Wanderers
Cavalry FC0-0HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers1-1Cavalry FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HFX Wanderers 1477 · Cavalry FC 1550

	HFX Wanderers	Draw	Cavalry FC
Our model	23%	25%	53%
Market	23%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalry FC (rating 1477 vs 1550).
H2H favours Cavalry FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HFX Wanderers	Cavalry FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.75

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.78
2	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.77 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:09 +8’	3.75	3.70	1.73
21:00 +8’	4.00▲	3.75▲	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +55’	3.91	3.73	1.76
08:18 +1’	3.81▼	3.74▲	1.77▲
12:36 +24’	3.81	3.78▲	1.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HFX Wanderers 0–3–3 Cavalry FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-3 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
18/07/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	1-1 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
07/06/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	2-0 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
13/09/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	3-1 HT 1-0	HFX Wanderers
09/08/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	0-0 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
14/06/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-1 HT 1-0	Cavalry FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	25	16	5	4	51	19	53
2	Forge FC	25	15	6	4	41	20	51
3	Atletico Ottawa	25	12	4	9	38	41	40
4	Vancouver FC	26	9	7	10	37	35	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	9	5	12	40	47	32
6	HFX Wanderers	25	7	6	12	38	42	27
7	Inter Toronto	25	6	9	10	40	56	27
8	Pacific FC (CA)	25	2	8	15	30	55	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HFX Wanderers	Cavalry FC
Forge FC	3-3 D	1-1 D
Atletico Ottawa	0-1 L	2-3 L
Inter Toronto	4-1 W	1-3 L
Supra du Quebec	2-0 W	6-0 W
Pacific FC (CA)	3-4 L	1-0 W
Vancouver FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HFX Wanderers

DLLWLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	3-3	0	2	D
26/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
20/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	3-1	4-1	0	6	W
12/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
07/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-3	1	4	L
31/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	3-4	3	3	L
22/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
16/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-3	3-4	6	3	L
08/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
03/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	7	D

Cavalry FC

DWWWWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-2	1-3	6	8	L
01/10	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	2-3	5	6	L
26/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	6-0	5	6	W
19/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
14/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
07/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
29/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
22/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
09/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cavalry FC win (53%). Probabilities: HFX Wanderers 23%, draw 24%, Cavalry FC 53%.

How many goals are expected in HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (HFX Wanderers 1.17 · Cavalry FC 1.87), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers vs Cavalry FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.