Prediction: Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers
| Cavalry FC | Draw | HFX Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalry FC (rating 1581 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Cavalry FC: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavalry FC 4–2–0 HFX Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/26 Canada Premier League | Cavalry FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | HFX Wanderers |
| 13/09/25 Canada Premier League | Cavalry FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | HFX Wanderers |
| 09/08/25 Canada Premier League | Cavalry FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | HFX Wanderers |
| 14/06/25 Canada Premier League | HFX Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cavalry FC |
| 10/05/25 Canada Premier League | HFX Wanderers | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Cavalry FC |
| 13/10/24 Canada Premier League | Cavalry FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | HFX Wanderers |
Standings · Canada Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forge FC | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 31 |
| 2 | Cavalry FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 26 |
| 3 | Atletico Ottawa | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 17 |
| 4 | HFX Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter Toronto | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 12 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| 8 | Pacific FC (CA) | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Ottawa | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Inter Toronto | 5-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Forge FC | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Pacific FC (CA) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Vancouver FC | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cavalry FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps Canada Championships |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Championships |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 6 | D |
HFX Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 01/07 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/06 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Forge FC Canada Championships |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cavalry FC win (65%). Probabilities: Cavalry FC 65%, draw 22%, HFX Wanderers 13%.
How many goals are expected in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Cavalry FC 2.04 · HFX Wanderers 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.