Football · Canada Premier League · 18/07, 01:00
Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Atletico Ottawa1.89
Inter Toronto1.29
1X2
Atletico Ottawa
Draw
Inter Toronto
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Ottawa
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Inter Toronto
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Ottawa
2–3–1
Inter Toronto
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Ottawa 1508 · Inter Toronto 1459
| Atletico Ottawa | Draw | Inter Toronto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1508 vs 1459).
- H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Ottawa | Inter Toronto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.2 | 1.4 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 2–3–1 Inter Toronto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Canada Premier League | Inter Toronto | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 14/09/25 Canada Premier League | Inter Toronto | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 03/08/25 Canada Premier League | Atletico Ottawa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Inter Toronto |
| 09/07/25 Canada Championships | Inter Toronto | 3-4 HT 2-2 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 22/06/25 Canada Premier League | Inter Toronto | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 12/06/25 Canada Championships | Atletico Ottawa | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Inter Toronto |
Standings · Canada Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forge FC | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 31 |
| 2 | Cavalry FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 26 |
| 3 | Atletico Ottawa | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 17 |
| 4 | HFX Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter Toronto | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 12 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| 8 | Pacific FC (CA) | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Ottawa | Inter Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| Supra du Quebec | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Cavalry FC | 0-3 L | 1-5 L |
| HFX Wanderers | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Vancouver FC | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Pacific FC (CA) | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Forge FC | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Ottawa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Supra du Quebec Canada Championships |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/07 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
1-3 | 5-3 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Toronto FC Canada Championships |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
Inter Toronto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/06 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 19/04 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Ottawa win (50%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 50%, draw 25%, Inter Toronto 25%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Atletico Ottawa 1.89 · Inter Toronto 1.29), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.