Football · Brazil Serie B · 29/09, 00:30

Prediction: America MG vs EC Juventude

Team pages: America MG · EC Juventude

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

America MG1

EC Juventude1.13

1X2

31% 31% 38%

America MG Draw EC Juventude

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLWLL

EC Juventude 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDWLL

Head-to-head

America MG 3–2–1 EC Juventude (6 last)

EC Juventude3-0America MG
EC Juventude0-1America MG
America MG4-1EC Juventude
EC Juventude1-1America MG
America MG1-1EC Juventude
America MG2-1EC Juventude

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America MG 1442 · EC Juventude 1527

	America MG	Draw	EC Juventude
Our model	31%	32%	37%
Market	32%	30%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Juventude (rating 1442 vs 1527).
H2H favours America MG: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	EC Juventude
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.10

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.39 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.15
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +5’	2.88	3.10	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +7’	3.39	3.15	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 3–2–1 EC Juventude

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	3-0 HT 1-0	America MG
06/08/22 Brazil Serie A	EC Juventude	0-1 HT 0-1	America MG
17/04/22 Brazil Serie A	America MG	4-1 HT 2-0	EC Juventude
10/10/21 Brazil Serie A	EC Juventude	1-1 HT 1-1	America MG
24/06/21 Brazil Serie A	America MG	1-1 HT 0-1	EC Juventude
25/11/20 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-1 HT 2-1	EC Juventude

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	29	15	6	8	41	31	51
2	Fortaleza	29	14	9	6	33	24	51
3	Gremio Novorizontino	29	14	8	7	49	27	50
4	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	29	12	10	7	36	27	46
7	CRB	29	13	6	10	42	41	45
8	Operario PR	28	12	8	8	39	36	44
9	Sport Recife	29	11	11	7	39	29	44
10	Goias	29	12	6	11	30	35	42
11	Sao Bernardo SP	29	11	8	10	40	31	41
12	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
13	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
14	Nautico	28	10	8	10	35	33	38
15	Ceara	29	9	8	12	31	37	35
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	29	8	6	15	30	38	30
18	Londrina	29	7	7	15	39	41	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	3	4	22	17	62	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	EC Juventude
CRB	1-3 L	2-1 W
Sport Recife	0-3 L	1-2 L
Gremio Novorizontino	0-3 L	1-0 W
Athletic Club MG	1-3 L	0-2 L
Goias	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: EC Juventude (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

WLLLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
25/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	0	L
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

EC Juventude

WWDWWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
13/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
02/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
26/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
15/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
29/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs EC Juventude?

According to our model, the most likely result is an EC Juventude win (38%). Probabilities: America MG 31%, draw 31%, EC Juventude 38%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs EC Juventude?

The model expects 2.13 goals (America MG 1 · EC Juventude 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs EC Juventude?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.