Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 01/11, 18:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United II vs FC Tallinn

Team pages: JK Nomme United II · FC Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

JK Nomme United II2.4

FC Tallinn1.72

1X2

53% 20% 27%

JK Nomme United II Draw FC Tallinn

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Tallinn 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Nomme United II 0–2–1 FC Tallinn (3 last)

FC Tallinn1-1JK Nomme United II
FC Tallinn4-3JK Nomme United II
JK Nomme United II2-2FC Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United II 1463 · FC Tallinn 1464

	JK Nomme United II	Draw	FC Tallinn
Our model	52%	21%	27%
Market	53%	20%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United II	FC Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.8	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.72
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.71 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +19’	1.70	4.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +67’	1.78	4.64	2.93
07:38 +35’	1.72▼	4.71▲	3.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United II 0–2–1 FC Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United II
04/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	4-3 HT 3-2	JK Nomme United II
22/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United II	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	36	25	5	6	101	45	80
2	Viimsi JK	34	18	6	10	62	33	60
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	35	16	7	12	78	60	55
4	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	34	17	3	14	67	59	54
5	FC Elva	34	15	8	11	50	51	53
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	34	12	7	15	59	63	43
7	JK Nomme United II	34	11	6	17	55	70	39
8	FC Tallinn	34	10	8	16	43	75	38
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	35	7	5	23	40	85	26

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United II	FC Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-3 L	2-1 W
Tartu JK Welco	3-4 L	0-7 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-1 L	1-5 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-2 W	2-1 W
Viimsi JK	1-0 W	0-3 L
FC Elva	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme United II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-3	4	8	L
18/10	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-4	6	3	L
09/10	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
21/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-2	2	5	W
13/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
10/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
06/09	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
30/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	16	9	L
24/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-4	3	5	L
20/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	5	3	D

FC Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-1	7	5	W
19/10	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
15/10	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-4	0-7	2	6	L
10/10	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
19/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-5	6	4	L
03/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
29/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
23/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United II vs FC Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme United II win (53%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United II 53%, draw 20%, FC Tallinn 27%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United II vs FC Tallinn?

The model expects 4.12 goals (JK Nomme United II 2.4 · FC Tallinn 1.72), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United II vs FC Tallinn?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.