Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: FC Elva vs JK Tallinna Kalev

Team pages: FC Elva · JK Tallinna Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

FC Elva1.99

JK Tallinna Kalev1.16

1X2

56% 24% 21%

FC Elva Draw JK Tallinna Kalev

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elva 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDLDD

JK Tallinna Kalev 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLLLW

Head-to-head

FC Elva 2–1–3 JK Tallinna Kalev (6 last)

FC Elva3-2JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev1-0FC Elva
FC Elva3-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev2-1FC Elva
FC Elva1-2JK Tallinna Kalev
FC Elva0-0JK Tallinna Kalev

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elva (rating 1517 vs 1447).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elva	JK Tallinna Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	3.6 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.83

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:04

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.25 → 1.99▼	Pinn 1.99
X	3.68 → 3.72▲	Pinn 3.72
2	2.48 → 2.87▲	Pinn 2.87

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +53’	2.25	3.68	2.48
07:59 +5’	1.99▼	3.72▲	2.87▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elva 2–1–3 JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 Estonia Cup	FC Elva	3-2 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
15/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Elva
24/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	3-1 HT 1-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
09/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Elva
30/10/25 Estonia Cup	FC Elva	1-2 HT 1-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
29/01/23 Europe Friendlies	FC Elva	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	36	25	5	6	101	45	80
2	Viimsi JK	34	18	6	10	62	33	60
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	35	16	7	12	78	60	55
4	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	34	17	3	14	67	59	54
5	FC Elva	34	15	8	11	50	51	53
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	34	12	7	15	59	63	43
7	JK Nomme United II	34	11	6	17	55	70	39
8	FC Tallinn	34	10	8	16	43	75	38
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	35	7	5	23	40	85	26

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elva	JK Tallinna Kalev
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-3 D	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	0-0 D	3-1 W
Tartu JK Welco	0-4 L	2-3 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	2-2 D
Viimsi JK	0-5 L	1-2 L
JK Nomme United II	1-0 W	1-2 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elva (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Elva

WDWWLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-3	3	5	D
18/10	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/10	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
19/09	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
10/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
06/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
24/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
20/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W

JK Tallinna Kalev

WLLDLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	4	7	W
23/10	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	5	L
19/10	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
10/10	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
18/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
10/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
05/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
29/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
24/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elva vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Elva win (56%). Probabilities: FC Elva 56%, draw 24%, JK Tallinna Kalev 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elva vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model expects 3.15 goals (FC Elva 1.99 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elva vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.