Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Tallinn vs FC Flora Tallinn II

Team pages: FC Tallinn · FC Flora Tallinn II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

FC Tallinn1.39

FC Flora Tallinn II2.62

1X2

18% 19% 63%

FC Tallinn Draw FC Flora Tallinn II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tallinn 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLWLWW

FC Flora Tallinn II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLDLDW

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn 2–4 FC Flora Tallinn II (6 last)

FC Tallinn1-3FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II5-0FC Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn II2-4FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn2-3FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Tallinn1-0FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II2-0FC Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tallinn 1485 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1518

	FC Tallinn	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn II
Our model	18%	19%	63%
Market	18%	19%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn II: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tallinn	FC Flora Tallinn II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.8	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.75

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:12 +7’	5.00	4.75	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tallinn 2–0–4 FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn II
10/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	5-0 HT 2-0	FC Tallinn
27/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	2-4 HT 2-1	FC Tallinn
02/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn II
14/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
09/03/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	20	14	3	3	62	26	45
2	Viimsi JK	20	10	5	5	34	19	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	20	10	4	6	51	38	34
4	FC Elva	20	9	3	8	37	33	30
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	20	9	0	11	39	35	27
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	20	7	5	8	30	47	26
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	20	7	4	9	40	40	25
8	FC Tallinn	20	5	5	10	27	49	20
9	JK Nomme United II	20	5	5	10	36	48	20
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	20	5	4	11	30	51	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tallinn	FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Elva	0-3 L	3-0 W
JK Nomme United II	4-3 W	1-1 D
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-4 L	0-4 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-1 W	5-0 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Tallinn

LDWLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Tallinna FC Zapoos Estonia Cup	0-0	4-1	2	6	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
11/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-3	0	5	L
13/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
01/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
28/05	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
24/05	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	3	8	L

FC Flora Tallinn II

WWWDLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
22/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Cup	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
18/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	10	1	D
09/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
05/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-4	6	3	L
30/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
22/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	13	3	W
18/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-1	2	5	W
14/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tallinn vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn II win (63%). Probabilities: FC Tallinn 18%, draw 19%, FC Flora Tallinn II 63%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tallinn vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model expects 4.01 goals (FC Tallinn 1.39 · FC Flora Tallinn II 2.62), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tallinn vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.