Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 03/08, 18:00

Prediction: Viimsi JK vs JK Tallinna Kalev

Team pages: Viimsi JK · JK Tallinna Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Viimsi JK2.18

JK Tallinna Kalev1.45

1X2

54% 22% 25%

Viimsi JK Draw JK Tallinna Kalev

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Viimsi JK 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDDLWW

JK Tallinna Kalev 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDLWW

Head-to-head

Viimsi JK 3–3–0 JK Tallinna Kalev (6 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev0-3Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK2-0JK Tallinna Kalev
Viimsi JK3-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev0-0Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK1-1JK Tallinna Kalev
Viimsi JK1-1JK Tallinna Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Viimsi JK 1564 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1495

	Viimsi JK	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev
Our model	53%	22%	24%
Market	54%	21%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viimsi JK (rating 1564 vs 1495).
H2H favours Viimsi JK: 3-3-0.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viimsi JK	JK Tallinna Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	2.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 7.5	3.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:27 +3’	1.67	4.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Viimsi JK 3–3–0 JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	0-3 HT 0-1	Viimsi JK
19/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	2-0 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
01/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Viimsi JK	3-1 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
30/11/24 Estonia Play-Offs	JK Tallinna Kalev	0-0 HT 0-0	Viimsi JK
24/11/24 Estonia Play-Offs	Viimsi JK	1-1 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
04/02/23 Europe Friendlies	Viimsi JK	1-1 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	21	14	3	4	63	28	45
2	Viimsi JK	20	10	5	5	34	19	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	21	10	4	7	51	39	34
4	FC Elva	21	9	4	8	39	35	31
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	21	8	5	8	34	48	29
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	21	9	1	11	41	37	28
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	20	7	4	9	40	40	25
8	FC Tallinn	21	6	5	10	28	49	23
9	JK Nomme United II	21	6	5	10	38	49	23
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	21	5	4	12	31	55	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Viimsi JK	JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Nomme United II	3-0 W	3-1 W
FC Elva	1-3 L	1-3 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-2 D	5-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	0-1 L	3-3 D
FC Flora Tallinn II	4-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Viimsi JK

WDWWLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-0	7	7	W
23/07	JK Nomme United U19 Estonia Cup	0-0	4-0	–	–	W
16/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	11	5	L
11/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	23	1	D
02/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
22/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
27/05	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
24/05	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
17/05	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	4-0	4	3	W

JK Tallinna Kalev

LLLLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Tartu JK Tammeka U19 Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W
18/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	12	5	W
14/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	6	6	L
31/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
27/05	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
24/05	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viimsi JK vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Viimsi JK win (54%). Probabilities: Viimsi JK 54%, draw 22%, JK Tallinna Kalev 25%.

How many goals are expected in Viimsi JK vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Viimsi JK 2.18 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1.45), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Viimsi JK vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.