Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 08/08, 14:00

Prediction: FC Elva vs Tartu JK Welco

Team pages: FC Elva · Tartu JK Welco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

FC Elva1.67

Tartu JK Welco2.58

1X2

23% 20% 56%

FC Elva Draw Tartu JK Welco

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elva 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Tartu JK Welco 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Elva 2–1–3 Tartu JK Welco (6 last)

FC Elva0-2Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-3FC Elva
Tartu JK Welco3-2FC Elva
FC Elva1-2Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco2-5FC Elva
FC Elva3-1Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Elva 1564 · Tartu JK Welco 1580

	FC Elva	Draw	Tartu JK Welco
Our model	24%	20%	57%
Market	23%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elva	Tartu JK Welco
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.4	4.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.33

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:49 +1’	3.90	4.33	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elva 2–1–3 Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-2 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco
27/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-3 HT 3-1	FC Elva
27/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Elva
04/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	1-2 HT 1-1	Tartu JK Welco
14/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	2-5 HT 1-4	FC Elva
15/03/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	3-1 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	21	14	3	4	63	28	45
2	Viimsi JK	21	10	5	6	35	21	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	21	10	4	7	51	39	34
4	FC Elva	21	9	4	8	39	35	31
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	21	8	5	8	34	48	29
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	21	9	1	11	41	37	28
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	21	8	4	9	42	41	28
8	FC Tallinn	21	6	5	10	28	49	23
9	JK Nomme United II	21	6	5	10	38	49	23
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	21	5	4	12	31	55	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elva	Tartu JK Welco
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-2 D	3-1 W
Viimsi JK	3-1 W	2-2 D
FC Tallinn	3-0 W	0-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-2 D	4-2 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	4-3 W	8-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Elva

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
22/07	Laanemaa Haapsalu Estonia Cup	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
11/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
30/06	FC Jarva-Jaani Estonia Cup	1-0	4-0	12	2	W
22/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
11/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	4-3	3	6	W
01/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
28/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	2	3	W

Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
23/07	Rumori Calcio II Estonia Cup	4-0	12-0	–	–	W
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
21/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	5-2	3	3	W
18/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
13/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	4-0	7	3	W
01/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
28/05	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	4-2	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elva vs Tartu JK Welco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (56%). Probabilities: FC Elva 23%, draw 20%, Tartu JK Welco 56%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elva vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model expects 4.25 goals (FC Elva 1.67 · Tartu JK Welco 2.58), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elva vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.