Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 08/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Team pages: JK Nomme United II · FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

JK Nomme United II1.86

FC Levadia Tallinn U212.13

1X2

34% 22% 44%

JK Nomme United II Draw FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDLLW

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWWD

Head-to-head

JK Nomme United II 1–1 FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (2 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn U214-2JK Nomme United II
FC Levadia Tallinn U210-1JK Nomme United II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United II 1442 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1534

	JK Nomme United II	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Our model	34%	22%	44%
Market	34%	22%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (rating 1442 vs 1534).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United II	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 3	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X4.00

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
X	4.00 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	2.30 → 1.65▼	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 15.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:03 +2’	2.30	4.00	2.30
08:52	2.63▲	4.00	2.00▼
12:48 +4’	3.50▲	4.33▲	1.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:51 +1’	2.64	3.92	1.93
12:46 +6’	3.28▲	4.22▲	1.64▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United II 1–0–1 FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	4-2 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United II
16/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-1 HT 0-0	JK Nomme United II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	21	14	3	4	63	28	45
2	Viimsi JK	21	10	5	6	35	21	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	21	10	4	7	51	39	34
4	FC Elva	21	9	4	8	39	35	31
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	21	8	5	8	34	48	29
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	21	9	1	11	41	37	28
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	21	8	4	9	42	41	28
8	FC Tallinn	21	6	5	10	28	49	23
9	JK Nomme United II	21	6	5	10	38	49	23
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	21	5	4	12	31	55	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United II	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Tartu JK Welco	2-1 W	1-3 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-3 L	3-2 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-1 D	4-0 W
FC Tallinn	3-4 L	4-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	1-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
27/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	1	7	L
18/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
12/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-3	3-4	12	9	L
30/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-3	2	6	D
21/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	2-5	6	3	L
18/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
15/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	1-4	1	1	L
25/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-4	2	5	L

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

LWLWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
18/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
11/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-2	8	6	W
05/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
21/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	4-0	3	3	W
18/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-3	8	4	L
31/05	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
28/05	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	9	3	L
25/05	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	4-2	7	5	W
16/05	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn U21 win (44%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United II 34%, draw 22%, FC Levadia Tallinn U21 44%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model expects 3.99 goals (JK Nomme United II 1.86 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2.13), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United II vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.