Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 08/08, 14:00

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev · FC Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

JK Tallinna Kalev2.46

FC Tallinn1.32

1X2

62% 19% 19%

JK Tallinna Kalev Draw FC Tallinn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Tallinn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev 2–1–0 FC Tallinn (3 last)

FC Tallinn1-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev5-1FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn0-5JK Tallinna Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev 1539 · FC Tallinn 1493

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Draw	FC Tallinn
Our model	62%	20%	18%
Market	62%	19%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tallinna Kalev (rating 1539 vs 1493).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.3	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:49 +1’	1.45	4.75	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev 2–1–0 FC Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-1 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
15/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	5-1 HT 0-1	FC Tallinn
05/03/25 Estonia Cup	FC Tallinn	0-5 HT 0-3	JK Tallinna Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	21	14	3	4	63	28	45
2	Viimsi JK	21	10	5	6	35	21	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	21	10	4	7	51	39	34
4	FC Elva	21	9	4	8	39	35	31
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	21	8	5	8	34	48	29
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	21	9	1	11	41	37	28
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	21	8	4	9	42	41	28
8	FC Tallinn	21	6	5	10	28	49	23
9	JK Nomme United II	21	6	5	10	38	49	23
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	21	5	4	12	31	55	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Tallinn
JK Nomme United II	3-1 W	4-3 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-3 L	0-4 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	3-3 D	0-0 D
JK Nomme Kalju II	5-1 W	3-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tallinna Kalev (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
23/07	Tartu JK Tammeka U19 Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W
18/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	12	5	W
14/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	6	6	L
31/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
27/05	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	6	5	L

FC Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
28/07	Tallinna FC Zapoos Estonia Cup	0-0	4-1	2	6	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
11/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-3	0	5	L
13/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
01/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
28/05	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tallinna Kalev win (62%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev 62%, draw 19%, FC Tallinn 19%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn?

The model expects 3.78 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev 2.46 · FC Tallinn 1.32), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.