Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Elva

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 · FC Elva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

FC Levadia Tallinn U211.85

FC Elva1.71

1X2

41% 23% 36%

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Draw FC Elva

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWWWW

FC Elva 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDWWW

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2–1–3 FC Elva (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn U211-3FC Elva
FC Elva3-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U212-1FC Elva
FC Elva2-0FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Elva2-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U213-2FC Elva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1532 · FC Elva 1576

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	Draw	FC Elva
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	42%	22%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elva (rating 1532 vs 1576).
H2H favours FC Elva: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	FC Elva
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	2.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:14 +5’	2.15	4.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2–1–3 FC Elva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Elva
21/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	3-2 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
23/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-1 HT 2-0	FC Elva
09/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
01/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-2 HT 2-2	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
13/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-2 HT 3-0	FC Elva

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	20	14	3	3	62	26	45
2	Viimsi JK	20	10	5	5	34	19	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	20	10	4	6	51	38	34
4	FC Elva	20	9	3	8	37	33	30
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	20	9	0	11	39	35	27
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	20	7	5	8	30	47	26
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	20	7	4	9	40	40	25
8	FC Tallinn	20	5	5	10	27	49	20
9	JK Nomme United II	20	5	5	10	36	48	20
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	20	5	4	11	30	51	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	FC Elva
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-0 W	2-2 D
JK Tallinna Kalev	3-2 W	3-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	4-0 W	0-3 L
FC Tallinn	4-0 W	3-0 W
Tartu JK Welco	1-3 L	0-2 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

LLWLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
11/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-2	8	6	W
05/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
21/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	4-0	3	3	W
18/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-3	8	4	L
31/05	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
28/05	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	9	3	L
25/05	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	4-2	7	5	W
16/05	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
11/05	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	8	6	L

FC Elva

WWLWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Laanemaa Haapsalu Estonia Cup	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
11/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
30/06	FC Jarva-Jaani Estonia Cup	1-0	4-0	12	2	W
22/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
11/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	4-3	3	6	W
01/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
28/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
24/05	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Elva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn U21 win (41%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 41%, draw 23%, FC Elva 36%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Elva?

The model expects 3.56 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1.85 · FC Elva 1.71), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Elva?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.