Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju II vs Maardu Linnameeskond

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju II · Maardu Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

JK Nomme Kalju II1.95

Maardu Linnameeskond2.13

1X2

36% 22% 43%

JK Nomme Kalju II Draw Maardu Linnameeskond

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju II 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDDLL

Maardu Linnameeskond 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWDWLW

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju II 1–5 Maardu Linnameeskond (6 last)

Maardu Linnameeskond2-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II3-2Maardu Linnameeskond
JK Nomme Kalju II0-1Maardu Linnameeskond
Maardu Linnameeskond10-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II1-2Maardu Linnameeskond
Maardu Linnameeskond2-0JK Nomme Kalju II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju II 1439 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1518

	JK Nomme Kalju II	Draw	Maardu Linnameeskond
Our model	36%	22%	43%
Market	36%	21%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maardu Linnameeskond (rating 1439 vs 1518).
H2H favours Maardu Linnameeskond: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju II	Maardu Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.7	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X4.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:14 +5’	2.50	4.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju II 1–0–5 Maardu Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	2-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme Kalju II
18/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	3-2 HT 2-1	Maardu Linnameeskond
06/10/18 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-1 HT 0-1	Maardu Linnameeskond
14/07/18 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	10-1 HT 5-1	JK Nomme Kalju II
28/04/18 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	1-2 HT 1-0	Maardu Linnameeskond
17/03/18 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	20	14	3	3	62	26	45
2	Viimsi JK	20	10	5	5	34	19	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	20	10	4	6	51	38	34
4	FC Elva	20	9	3	8	37	33	30
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	20	9	0	11	39	35	27
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	20	7	5	8	30	47	26
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	20	7	4	9	40	40	25
8	FC Tallinn	20	5	5	10	27	49	20
9	JK Nomme United II	20	5	5	10	36	48	20
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	20	5	4	11	30	51	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju II	Maardu Linnameeskond
FC Flora Tallinn II	0-5 L	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-2 L	2-1 W
Viimsi JK	2-2 D	1-0 W
FC Elva	2-2 D	3-4 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-5 L	3-3 D
FC Tallinn	1-3 L	0-0 D
Tartu JK Welco	2-4 L	1-8 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Maardu Linnameeskond (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju II

DLLWLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L
18/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
11/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	1	1	D
05/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
21/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-5	1	1	L
18/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	1	1	L
15/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-1	4	1	W
01/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
28/05	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-4	8	3	L
17/05	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Maardu Linnameeskond

WLDLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-4	1-8	3	3	L
09/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	3-3	4	5	D
22/06	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	15	1	W
11/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-4	4	6	L
28/05	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	10	7	D
24/05	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju II vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maardu Linnameeskond win (43%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju II 36%, draw 22%, Maardu Linnameeskond 43%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju II vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model expects 4.09 goals (JK Nomme Kalju II 1.95 · Maardu Linnameeskond 2.13), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju II vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.