Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United II vs Tartu JK Welco

Team pages: JK Nomme United II · Tartu JK Welco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

JK Nomme United II1.48

Tartu JK Welco2.95

1X2

16% 18% 67%

JK Nomme United II Draw Tartu JK Welco

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Tartu JK Welco 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Nomme United II 0–2 Tartu JK Welco (2 last)

Tartu JK Welco5-2JK Nomme United II
JK Nomme United II1-3Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United II 1407 · Tartu JK Welco 1604

	JK Nomme United II	Draw	Tartu JK Welco
Our model	16%	17%	67%
Market	16%	18%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1407 vs 1604).
H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United II	Tartu JK Welco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.9	4.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X5.00

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.90

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
X	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	1.50 → 1.36▼	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:16 +3’	4.50	4.50	1.50
14:11	5.75▲	5.00▲	1.36▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United II 0–0–2 Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	5-2 HT 3-1	JK Nomme United II
03/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United II	1-3 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	20	14	3	3	62	26	45
2	Viimsi JK	20	10	5	5	34	19	35
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	20	10	4	6	51	38	34
4	FC Elva	20	9	3	8	37	33	30
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	20	9	0	11	39	35	27
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	20	7	5	8	30	47	26
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	20	7	4	9	40	40	25
8	FC Tallinn	20	5	5	10	27	49	20
9	JK Nomme United II	20	5	5	10	36	48	20
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	20	5	4	11	30	51	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United II	Tartu JK Welco
Viimsi JK	0-3 L	2-2 D
FC Tallinn	3-4 L	0-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	1-4 L	4-2 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-4 L	3-1 W
FC Elva	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Nomme United II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	1	7	L
18/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
12/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-3	3-4	12	9	L
30/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-3	2	6	D
21/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	2-5	6	3	L
18/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
15/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	1-4	1	1	L
25/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-4	2	5	L
16/05	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Rumori Calcio II Estonia Cup	4-0	12-0	–	–	W
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
21/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	5-2	3	3	W
18/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
13/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	4-0	7	3	W
01/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
28/05	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	4-2	8	3	W
24/05	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United II vs Tartu JK Welco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (67%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United II 16%, draw 18%, Tartu JK Welco 67%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United II vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model expects 4.43 goals (JK Nomme United II 1.48 · Tartu JK Welco 2.95), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United II vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.