Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 16/07, 23:30
Prediction: SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
SD Aucas1.16
Independiente del Valle1.4
1X2
SD Aucas
Draw
Independiente del Valle
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
SD Aucas
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Independiente del Valle
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SD Aucas
1–2–3
Independiente del Valle
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1544 vs 1635).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Aucas | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 2.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 3.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 1–2–3 Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-2 HT 2-1 | SD Aucas |
| 19/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 2-0 | SD Aucas |
| 28/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente del Valle |
| 01/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 25/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 12/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente del Valle |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 43 |
| 2 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 27 |
| 5 | Deportivo Cuenca | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 27 |
| 6 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Macara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Tecnico Universitario | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 10 | Orense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 23 |
| 11 | Emelec | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 22 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 21 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 17 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SD Aucas | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City | 1-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Mushuc Runa | 0-0 D | 4-1 W |
| Manta FC | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Super Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (41%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 30%, draw 29%, Independiente del Valle 41%.
How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 2.57 goals (SD Aucas 1.16 · Independiente del Valle 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.