Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 19/07, 18:45
Prediction: Tecnico Universitario vs SD Aucas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.09Total
Tecnico Universitario0.95
SD Aucas1.13
1X2
Tecnico Universitario
Draw
SD Aucas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tecnico Universitario
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
SD Aucas
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tecnico Universitario
2–1–3
SD Aucas
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tecnico Universitario 1474 · SD Aucas 1541
| Tecnico Universitario | Draw | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 33% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 30% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Aucas (rating 1474 vs 1541).
- H2H favours SD Aucas: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tecnico Universitario | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.7 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tecnico Universitario 2–1–3 SD Aucas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 08/02/26 America Friendlies | SD Aucas | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 15/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-1 HT 1-1 | SD Aucas |
| 15/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 13/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 2-0 HT 2-0 | SD Aucas |
| 10/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Tecnico Universitario |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 43 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 30 |
| 4 | Macara | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 29 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 28 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cuenca | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 27 |
| 7 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Emelec | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 24 |
| 9 | Leones FC | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 10 | Tecnico Universitario | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 20 | 23 |
| 11 | Orense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 22 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 21 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 20 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 24 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tecnico Universitario | SD Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico Libertad | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| LDU Quito | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Delfin SC | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Guayaquil City | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: SD Aucas (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tecnico Universitario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Juventud Italiana Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 24/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tecnico Universitario vs SD Aucas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SD Aucas win (39%). Probabilities: Tecnico Universitario 30%, draw 31%, SD Aucas 39%.
How many goals are expected in Tecnico Universitario vs SD Aucas?
The model expects 2.09 goals (Tecnico Universitario 0.95 · SD Aucas 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tecnico Universitario vs SD Aucas?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.