Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/07, 23:30

Prediction: Leones FC vs Guayaquil City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Leones FC1.25

Guayaquil City0.81

1X2

46% 30% 23%

Leones FC Draw Guayaquil City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Leones FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Guayaquil City 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leones FC 2–2–2 Guayaquil City (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones FC 1552 · Guayaquil City 1461

	Leones FC	Draw	Guayaquil City
Our model	46%	32%	23%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones FC (rating 1552 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones FC	Guayaquil City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:05

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.84 → 1.87▲	Pinn 1.87
X	3.18 → 3.22▲	Pinn 3.22
2	4.48 → 4.47▼	Pinn 4.47

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:04	1.84	3.18	4.48
02:05	1.85▲	3.22▲	4.55▲
11:05	1.87▲	3.22	4.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones FC 2–2–2 Guayaquil City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Leones FC
29/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Leones FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
27/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Guayaquil City	2-1 HT 1-1	Leones FC
23/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Leones FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Guayaquil City
15/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Guayaquil City	0-1 HT 0-0	Leones FC
18/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Guayaquil City	2-0 HT 2-0	Leones FC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	20	16	1	3	49	20	49
2	SD Aucas	20	10	5	5	22	19	35
3	Barcelona Guayaquil	20	9	7	4	22	14	34
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	20	9	5	6	31	18	32
5	Macara	20	8	5	7	21	21	29
6	LDU Quito	20	8	4	8	19	16	28
7	Deportivo Cuenca	20	8	4	8	19	23	28
8	Leones FC	20	7	6	7	21	20	27
9	Emelec	20	7	6	7	17	23	27
10	Guayaquil City	20	7	5	8	18	22	26
11	Tecnico Universitario	20	7	2	11	19	21	23
12	Orense	19	6	5	8	22	26	23
13	Delfin SC	20	6	5	9	13	19	23
14	Mushuc Runa	19	5	6	8	24	29	21
15	Club Atletico Libertad	20	5	6	9	18	26	21
16	Manta FC	20	3	4	13	7	25	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones FC	Guayaquil City
LDU Quito	1-0 W	0-1 L
Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 D	0-1 L
Mushuc Runa	3-1 W	2-2 D
Orense	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leones FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W
02/06	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
30/05	Huaquillas FC Ecuador Cup	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/05	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
17/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
09/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
04/05	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	6	W

Guayaquil City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
08/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
31/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-4	0	5	L
23/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-2	1	5	D
19/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
14/05	Astillero FC Ecuador Cup	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
02/05	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones FC vs Guayaquil City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leones FC win (46%). Probabilities: Leones FC 46%, draw 30%, Guayaquil City 23%.

How many goals are expected in Leones FC vs Guayaquil City?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Leones FC 1.25 · Guayaquil City 0.81), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones FC vs Guayaquil City?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.