Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 12/09, 21:00
Prediction: Manta FC vs SD Aucas
Team pages: Manta FC · SD Aucas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Manta FC0.91
SD Aucas1.41
1X2
Manta FC
Draw
SD Aucas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Manta FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
SD Aucas
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Manta FC
0–3–3
SD Aucas
(6 last)
- SD Aucas3-1Manta FC
- Manta FC1-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas1-1Manta FC
- SD Aucas3-0Manta FC
- Manta FC1-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas2-0Manta FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Manta FC 1431 · SD Aucas 1528
| Manta FC | Draw | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 30% | 47% |
| Market | 23% | 29% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Aucas (rating 1431 vs 1528).
- H2H favours SD Aucas: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Manta FC | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.2 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.5 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manta FC 0–3–3 SD Aucas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Manta FC |
| 16/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 17/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Manta FC |
| 22/08/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Manta FC |
| 21/03/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | SD Aucas |
| 29/10/17 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | SD Aucas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Manta FC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 29 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 31 | 71 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 49 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Macara | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 33 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 23 | 45 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 43 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Libertad | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 39 |
| 9 | Emelec | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 33 | 39 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 34 | 35 | 38 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30 | 35 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 36 | 35 |
| 13 | Orense | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 45 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 29 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 42 | 29 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 30 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 29 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 42 | 20 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Manta FC | SD Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Macara | 3-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Leones FC | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Tecnico Universitario | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| LDU Quito | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: SD Aucas (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manta FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 02/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 11/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 23/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 19/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 17/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Manta FC vs SD Aucas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SD Aucas win (48%). Probabilities: Manta FC 23%, draw 29%, SD Aucas 48%.
How many goals are expected in Manta FC vs SD Aucas?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Manta FC 0.91 · SD Aucas 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Manta FC vs SD Aucas?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.