Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 20/07, 02:15
Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs Emelec
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Independiente del Valle1.7
Emelec0.62
1X2
Independiente del Valle
Draw
Emelec
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente del Valle
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Emelec
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente del Valle
3–1–2
Emelec
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1638 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6 | 2.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 3–1–2 Emelec
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 24/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 05/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Emelec |
| 15/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Emelec |
| 01/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 01/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Emelec |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 43 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 31 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 18 | 29 |
| 5 | Macara | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 15 | 28 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 28 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 24 |
| 9 | Emelec | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 24 |
| 10 | Tecnico Universitario | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 20 | 23 |
| 11 | Orense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 22 | 23 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 21 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 20 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 24 | 13 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle | Emelec |
|---|---|---|
| Manta FC | 4-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Macara | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Super Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (63%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 63%, draw 25%, Emelec 12%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Independiente del Valle 1.7 · Emelec 0.62), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.