Football · Brazil Serie A · 11/10, 02:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Vitoria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Sao Paulo1.55

Vitoria0.69

1X2

57% 26% 16%

Sao Paulo Draw Vitoria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWWLWL

Vitoria 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLWDL

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 4–2 Vitoria (6 last)

Vitoria2-0Sao Paulo
Vitoria1-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-0Vitoria
Sao Paulo2-1Vitoria
Vitoria1-3Sao Paulo
Vitoria0-1Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1476 · Vitoria 1450

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Vitoria
Our model	57%	28%	16%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sao Paulo: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Vitoria
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.3	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +4’	1.60	3.70	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 4–0–2 Vitoria

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	2-0 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
07/12/25 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
09/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-0 HT 1-0	Vitoria
25/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-1 HT 2-0	Vitoria
05/05/24 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	1-3 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
27/10/18 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	0-1 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	28	12	7	9	37	32	43
8	Santos	28	11	8	9	43	41	41
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	28	10	6	12	33	32	36
10	Sao Paulo	28	10	6	12	33	32	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo	Vitoria
Palmeiras	0-2 L	0-4 L
Atletico Mineiro	2-0 W	1-2 L
Gremio	1-2 L	1-0 W
Flamengo	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Paulo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo

LDLDLWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	14	4	L
20/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L

Vitoria

DLLLWLLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-3	8	3	L
13/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	10	D
08/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
29/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
23/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
16/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
10/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
30/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	6	7	L
27/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
24/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (57%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 57%, draw 26%, Vitoria 16%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Sao Paulo 1.55 · Vitoria 0.69), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.