Football · Brazil Serie A · 11/10, 21:00

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Santos

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Atletico Mineiro1.53

Santos1.17

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Atletico Mineiro Draw Santos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWDWD

Santos 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro 2–1–3 Santos (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro4-2Santos
Santos2-0Atletico Mineiro
Santos1-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro1-1Santos
Santos2-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro2-0Santos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1549 · Santos 1566

	Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Santos
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santos: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	2.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 9 moves · last 12:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.21
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.54 ★
2	3.70 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (9)

Bet365 margin 5.3% Pinnacle margin 3.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +4’	2.00	3.40	3.70
04:00 +3’	2.00	3.40	3.90▲
20:19 +10’	2.05▲	3.40	3.80▼
00:41 +3’	2.10▲	3.30▼	3.70▼
02:04 +2’	2.15▲	3.30	3.50▼
08:14 +1’	2.15	3.40▲	3.40▼
09:15 +5’	2.20▲	3.40	3.25▼
10:13 +5’	2.15▼	3.40	3.30▲
12:41 +8’	2.15	3.40	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:14 +109’	2.02	3.51	3.72
17:09 +200’	2.04▲	3.54▲	3.59▼
22:11 +118’	2.06▲	3.49▼	3.61▲
10:51 +62’	2.05▼	3.52▲	3.62▲
15:10 +180’	2.06▲	3.50▼	3.60▼
21:11 +26’	2.08▲	3.54▲	3.63▲
23:47 +14’	2.04▼	3.57▲	3.73▲
00:27 +16’	2.06▲	3.50▼	3.72▼
01:19 +47’	2.15▲	3.47▼	3.50▼
07:24 +50’	2.18▲	3.56▲	3.34▼
09:19 +1’	2.21▲	3.57▲	3.33▼
09:38 +40’	2.21	3.54▼	3.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 2–1–3 Santos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/09/26 Copa Sudamericana	Atletico Mineiro	4-2 HT 3-1	Santos
10/09/26 Copa Sudamericana	Santos	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
12/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
14/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-1 HT 0-0	Santos
17/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Mineiro
27/08/23 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-0 HT 1-0	Santos

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	29	18	7	4	57	25	61
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48	21	60
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48	36	51
4	Athletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45	34	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44	40	48
6	EC Bahia	29	12	10	7	43	36	46
7	Atletico Mineiro	29	12	8	9	39	34	44
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45	43	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35	35	39
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37	47	38
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34	33	37
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42	47	35
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36	42	35
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34	43	33
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30	34	32
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32	37	31
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31	39	30
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	28	3	9	16	29	57	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro	Santos
Athletico Paranaense	2-2 D	0-2 L
Chapecoense	1-1 D	2-2 D
Sao Paulo	0-2 L	2-1 W
Internacional	0-0 D	3-2 W
Remo	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Mineiro

WDWDWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W

Santos

DLWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	5	11	D
03/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
19/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
13/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	13	5	W
06/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
30/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
16/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
25/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	12	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (44%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 44%, draw 28%, Santos 28%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Santos?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.53 · Santos 1.17), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Santos?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.