Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 31/07, 11:30
Prediction: Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)
Team pages: Moreton City Excelsior (W) · Mitchelton FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.46Total
Moreton City Excelsior (W)0.96
Mitchelton FC (W)2.51
1X2
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Draw
Mitchelton FC (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Mitchelton FC (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
0–1–0
Mitchelton FC (W)
(1 last)
- Mitchelton FC (W)1-1Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1407 · Mitchelton FC (W) 1516
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | Draw | Mitchelton FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Market | 12% | 17% | 71% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mitchelton FC (W) (rating 1407 vs 1516).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | Mitchelton FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.2 | 1.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.1 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.2 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 0–1–0 Mitchelton FC (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Lakes United (W) | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 11 | 35 |
| 2 | Caboolture FC (W) | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 25 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 24 |
| 5 | Grange Thistle (W) | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 30 | 18 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 29 | 18 |
| 7 | Peninsula Power (W) | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 39 | 17 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 17 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning (W) | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 41 | 15 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | Mitchelton FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia United SC (W) | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-6 L | 0-1 L |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-3 L | 3-4 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 7 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Mitchelton FC (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Mitchelton FC (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mitchelton FC (W) win (71%). Probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior (W) 12%, draw 17%, Mitchelton FC (W) 71%.
How many goals are expected in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?
The model expects 3.46 goals (Moreton City Excelsior (W) 0.96 · Mitchelton FC (W) 2.51), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.