Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 01/08, 09:00
Prediction: The Gap NPL (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)
Team pages: The Gap NPL (W) · Grange Thistle (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.34Total
The Gap NPL (W)2.38
Grange Thistle (W)1.95
1X2
The Gap NPL (W)
Draw
Grange Thistle (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
The Gap NPL (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Grange Thistle (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
The Gap NPL (W)
1–0
Grange Thistle (W)
(1 last)
- Grange Thistle (W)2-4The Gap NPL (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · The Gap NPL (W) 1541 · Grange Thistle (W) 1521
| The Gap NPL (W) | Draw | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 21% | 32% |
| Market | 47% | 22% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.34 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| The Gap NPL (W) | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 2.6 | 2 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.9 | 1.6 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · The Gap NPL (W) 1–0–0 Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 2-4 HT 1-2 | The Gap NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Lakes United (W) | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 11 | 35 |
| 2 | Caboolture FC (W) | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 25 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 24 |
| 5 | Grange Thistle (W) | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 30 | 18 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 29 | 18 |
| 7 | Peninsula Power (W) | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 39 | 17 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 17 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning (W) | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 41 | 15 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | The Gap NPL (W) | Grange Thistle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Peninsula Power (W) | 3-2 W | 4-2 W |
| North Lakes United (W) | 1-6 L | 3-2 W |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 3-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 5-3 W | 0-3 L |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 4-3 W | 1-3 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 0-1 L | 5-0 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
The Gap NPL (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-6 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 10/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 5-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 5-3 | 6 | 2 | W |
Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in The Gap NPL (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a The Gap NPL (W) win (47%). Probabilities: The Gap NPL (W) 47%, draw 21%, Grange Thistle (W) 31%.
How many goals are expected in The Gap NPL (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model expects 4.34 goals (The Gap NPL (W) 2.38 · Grange Thistle (W) 1.95), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in The Gap NPL (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.