Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 01/08, 09:00
Prediction: Logan Lightning (W) vs North Lakes United (W)
Team pages: Logan Lightning (W) · North Lakes United (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.44Total
Logan Lightning (W)1.22
North Lakes United (W)3.22
1X2
Logan Lightning (W)
Draw
North Lakes United (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Logan Lightning (W)
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
North Lakes United (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Logan Lightning (W)
0–1–3
North Lakes United (W)
(4 last)
- Logan Lightning (W)0-6North Lakes United (W)
- North Lakes United (W)9-0Logan Lightning (W)
- Logan Lightning (W)1-1North Lakes United (W)
- North Lakes United (W)6-2Logan Lightning (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Logan Lightning (W) 1438 · North Lakes United (W) 1590
| Logan Lightning (W) | Draw | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 8% | 11% | 81% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.44 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Lakes United (W) (rating 1438 vs 1590).
- H2H favours North Lakes United (W): 3-1-0.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Logan Lightning (W) | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 3.1 | 3.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 3.6 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Logan Lightning (W) 0–1–3 North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 0-6 HT 0-3 | North Lakes United (W) |
| 09/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | North Lakes United (W) | 9-0 HT 3-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 22/06/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | North Lakes United (W) |
| 06/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | North Lakes United (W) | 6-2 HT 3-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Lakes United (W) | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 11 | 35 |
| 2 | Caboolture FC (W) | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 25 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 24 |
| 5 | Grange Thistle (W) | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 30 | 18 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 29 | 18 |
| 7 | Peninsula Power (W) | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 39 | 17 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 17 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning (W) | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 41 | 15 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Logan Lightning (W) | North Lakes United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-3 L | 6-1 W |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 1-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 3-2 W | 6-0 W |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 6 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: North Lakes United (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 1-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 6-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Logan Lightning (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an North Lakes United (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Logan Lightning (W) 9%, draw 12%, North Lakes United (W) 78%.
How many goals are expected in Logan Lightning (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model expects 4.44 goals (Logan Lightning (W) 1.22 · North Lakes United (W) 3.22), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Logan Lightning (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.