Football · Finland Ykkonen · 29/08, 13:00

Prediction: JJK vs KPV

Team pages: JJK · KPV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.31Total

JJK3.09

KPV1.22

1X2

74% 16% 11%

JJK Draw KPV

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JJK 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLLDDD

KPV 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWLLWL

Head-to-head

JJK 2–1–3 KPV (6 last)

KPV2-3JJK
KPV4-0JJK
KPV3-0JJK
JJK1-1KPV
KPV0-2JJK
JJK0-3KPV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JJK 1470 · KPV 1453

	JJK	Draw	KPV
Our model	74%	15%	11%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KPV: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JJK	KPV
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.3	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.8	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.27
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.11 ★
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +5’	1.22	5.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:47	1.27	6.11	7.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JJK 2–1–3 KPV

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	2-3 HT 0-2	JJK
13/09/25 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	4-0 HT 1-0	JJK
26/07/25 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	3-0 HT 2-0	JJK
11/05/25 Finland Ykkonen	JJK	1-1 HT 1-0	KPV
20/07/24 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	0-2 HT 0-1	JJK
13/05/24 Finland Ykkonen	JJK	0-3 HT 0-0	KPV

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	21	13	5	3	46	16	44
2	RoPS	21	10	7	4	45	32	37
3	SalPa	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	21	8	8	5	38	30	32
5	VJS Vantaa	21	7	10	4	38	29	31
6	OLS	21	8	7	6	41	34	31
7	JJK	21	7	7	7	47	41	28
8	FC Jazz	21	8	6	7	30	29	27
9	TPV	21	6	6	9	30	38	24
10	FC Inter II	21	5	5	11	32	49	20
11	KUPS Akatemia	21	3	6	12	36	48	15
12	KPV	21	4	3	14	23	64	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JJK	KPV
PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-2 D	1-3 L
VJS Vantaa	4-4 D	1-2 L
Tampere Utd	0-0 D	0-6 L
SalPa	1-2 L	3-0 W
RoPS	0-4 L	1-1 D
FC Jazz	1-3 L	1-0 W
KUPS Akatemia	4-4 D	2-4 L
TPV	0-1 L	1-3 L
FC Inter II	11-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: JJK (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JJK

WWLDLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-2	8	3	D
16/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-4	2	4	D
11/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
05/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
25/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
18/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-2	4-4	11	7	D
05/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
25/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	6-0	11-1	10	7	W
13/06	KPV Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-2	12	1	W

KPV

LWLDLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-4	4	6	L
16/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-2	10	3	W
09/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-2	9	5	L
05/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-6	8	2	L
01/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
26/07	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	7	1	D
11/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
02/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
28/06	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JJK vs KPV?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JJK win (74%). Probabilities: JJK 74%, draw 16%, KPV 11%.

How many goals are expected in JJK vs KPV?

The model expects 4.31 goals (JJK 3.09 · KPV 1.22), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JJK vs KPV?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.