Football · Finland Ykkonen · 29/08, 13:00

Prediction: TPV vs PK Keski-Uusimaa

Team pages: TPV · PK Keski-Uusimaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

TPV1.68

PK Keski-Uusimaa1.86

1X2

35% 24% 42%

TPV Draw PK Keski-Uusimaa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

TPV 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLDDW

PK Keski-Uusimaa 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDDWDD

Head-to-head

TPV 2–1–2 PK Keski-Uusimaa (5 last)

PK Keski-Uusimaa2-2TPV
TPV2-0PK Keski-Uusimaa
PK Keski-Uusimaa2-0TPV
PK Keski-Uusimaa0-1TPV
TPV0-1PK Keski-Uusimaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TPV 1529 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 1518

	TPV	Draw	PK Keski-Uusimaa
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	35%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TPV	PK Keski-Uusimaa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	2.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.65
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30 +3’	2.60	3.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:47	2.65	3.66	2.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TPV 2–1–2 PK Keski-Uusimaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Finland Ykkonen	PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-2 HT 0-1	TPV
09/03/18 Finland Cup	TPV	2-0 HT 0-0	PK Keski-Uusimaa
27/09/15 Finland Kakkonen Group Etela	PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-0 HT 0-0	TPV
01/09/15 Finland Kakkonen Group Etela	PK Keski-Uusimaa	0-1 HT 0-1	TPV
02/08/15 Finland Kakkonen Group Etela	TPV	0-1 HT 0-1	PK Keski-Uusimaa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	21	13	5	3	46	16	44
2	RoPS	21	10	7	4	45	32	37
3	SalPa	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	21	8	8	5	38	30	32
5	VJS Vantaa	21	7	10	4	38	29	31
6	OLS	21	8	7	6	41	34	31
7	JJK	21	7	7	7	47	41	28
8	FC Jazz	21	8	6	7	30	29	27
9	TPV	21	6	6	9	30	38	24
10	FC Inter II	21	5	5	11	32	49	20
11	KUPS Akatemia	21	3	6	12	36	48	15
12	KPV	21	4	3	14	23	64	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TPV	PK Keski-Uusimaa
FC Inter II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Tampere Utd	1-1 D	4-4 D
SalPa	1-1 D	1-0 W
OLS	2-4 L	1-1 D
RoPS	6-3 W	3-4 L
FC Jazz	0-4 L	2-1 W
KUPS Akatemia	3-1 W	2-2 D
JJK	1-0 W	2-2 D
VJS Vantaa	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PK Keski-Uusimaa (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TPV

LWWWLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
15/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
11/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	11	3	D
05/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-4	5	4	L
01/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	6-3	0	1	W
24/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	KPV Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
05/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
29/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	4	1	L

PK Keski-Uusimaa

LWDLWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
16/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
11/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
05/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
31/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	4-4	8	5	D
25/07	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
22/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-3	5	4	L
18/07	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
05/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-2	3-4	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TPV vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PK Keski-Uusimaa win (42%). Probabilities: TPV 35%, draw 24%, PK Keski-Uusimaa 42%.

How many goals are expected in TPV vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

The model expects 3.53 goals (TPV 1.68 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 1.86), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in TPV vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.