Football · Finland Ykkonen · 29/08, 13:00

Prediction: KUPS Akatemia vs SalPa

Team pages: KUPS Akatemia · SalPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

KUPS Akatemia1.68

SalPa2.06

1X2

31% 23% 46%

KUPS Akatemia Draw SalPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

KUPS Akatemia 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLDDLLDW

SalPa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWDLW

Head-to-head

KUPS Akatemia 0–1 SalPa (1 last)

SalPa4-3KUPS Akatemia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KUPS Akatemia 1466 · SalPa 1512

	KUPS Akatemia	Draw	SalPa
Our model	31%	23%	46%
Market	31%	23%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SalPa (rating 1466 vs 1512).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KUPS Akatemia	SalPa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.3	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.80

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.26 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.84
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +2’	2.90	3.80	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:47	3.26	3.84	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KUPS Akatemia 0–0–1 SalPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Finland Ykkonen	SalPa	4-3 HT 3-1	KUPS Akatemia

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	21	13	5	3	46	16	44
2	RoPS	21	10	7	4	45	32	37
3	SalPa	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	21	8	8	5	38	30	32
5	VJS Vantaa	21	7	10	4	38	29	31
6	OLS	21	8	7	6	41	34	31
7	JJK	21	7	7	7	47	41	28
8	FC Jazz	21	8	6	7	30	29	27
9	TPV	21	6	6	9	30	38	24
10	FC Inter II	21	5	5	11	32	49	20
11	KUPS Akatemia	21	3	6	12	36	48	15
12	KPV	21	4	3	14	23	64	15

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KUPS Akatemia	SalPa
KPV	4-2 W	0-3 L
PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-2 D	0-1 L
RoPS	1-2 L	2-2 D
FC Inter II	0-1 L	2-1 W
FC Jazz	2-2 D	0-2 L
VJS Vantaa	2-2 D	2-2 D
TPV	1-3 L	1-1 D
JJK	4-4 D	2-1 W
Tampere Utd	2-3 L	1-0 W
OLS	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SalPa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KUPS Akatemia

DLDLDDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	4-2	7	6	W
16/08	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
11/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
30/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
26/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
18/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
11/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	2-2	4-4	6	7	D
04/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-3	6	8	L
28/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	1-2	2-2	3	4	D

SalPa

DDWWLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
15/08	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
11/08	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	13	2	L
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
27/06	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KUPS Akatemia vs SalPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SalPa win (46%). Probabilities: KUPS Akatemia 31%, draw 23%, SalPa 46%.

How many goals are expected in KUPS Akatemia vs SalPa?

The model expects 3.74 goals (KUPS Akatemia 1.68 · SalPa 2.06), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KUPS Akatemia vs SalPa?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.