Football · Finland Ykkonen · 05/08, 17:30

Prediction: SalPa vs JJK

Team pages: SalPa · JJK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

SalPa2.2

JJK1.78

1X2

47% 22% 31%

SalPa Draw JJK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWWLL

JJK 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWLDLL

Head-to-head

SalPa 2–2–0 JJK (4 last)

JJK2-2SalPa
SalPa2-2JJK
JJK0-1SalPa
SalPa3-0JJK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 1516 · JJK 1465

	SalPa	Draw	JJK
Our model	47%	22%	31%
Market	47%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SalPa (rating 1516 vs 1465).
H2H favours SalPa: 2-2-0.
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa	JJK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	2.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	3.4 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.90

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.91▲	Pinn 1.98
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	3.10 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.17 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +3’	1.83	4.00	3.10
17:05 +8’	1.91▲	3.90▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:13	1.88	3.99	3.37
18:18 +1’	1.98▲	3.88▼	3.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 2–2–0 JJK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	JJK	2-2 HT 1-1	SalPa
16/09/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	SalPa	2-2 HT 1-1	JJK
15/07/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	JJK	0-1 HT 0-0	SalPa
06/05/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	SalPa	3-0 HT 1-0	JJK

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	17	11	3	3	35	15	36
2	RoPS	17	9	5	3	38	22	32
3	OLS	17	7	5	5	32	24	26
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	17	7	5	5	33	26	26
5	SalPa	17	7	5	5	31	29	26
6	VJS Vantaa	17	6	7	4	31	23	25
7	JJK	17	7	4	6	40	33	25
8	FC Jazz	17	7	3	7	24	25	21
9	TPV	17	5	4	8	25	32	19
10	FC Inter II	17	4	5	8	29	44	17
11	KPV	17	3	3	11	17	50	12
12	KUPS Akatemia	17	2	5	10	29	41	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa	JJK
KPV	0-3 L	3-2 W
PK Keski-Uusimaa	0-1 L	1-3 L
FC Inter II	2-1 W	11-1 W
Tampere Utd	1-0 W	0-1 L
VJS Vantaa	2-2 D	2-2 D
RoPS	2-2 D	0-4 L
KUPS Akatemia	4-3 W	4-4 D
OLS	0-5 L	1-0 W
FC Jazz	2-1 W	1-3 L
TPV	4-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: SalPa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa

WWLWDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	13	2	L
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
27/06	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
12/06	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-3	9	4	W
06/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-5	6	4	L
28/05	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
23/05	TPV Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-2	5	3	W

JJK

LWDLWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
18/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-2	4-4	11	7	D
05/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
25/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	6-0	11-1	10	8	W
13/06	KPV Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-2	12	1	W
06/06	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-3	6	5	L
02/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
28/05	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/05	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa vs JJK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa win (47%). Probabilities: SalPa 47%, draw 22%, JJK 31%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa vs JJK?

The model expects 3.98 goals (SalPa 2.2 · JJK 1.78), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa vs JJK?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.