Football · Finland Ykkonen · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: SalPa vs FC Jazz

Team pages: SalPa · FC Jazz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

SalPa2

FC Jazz1.11

1X2

58% 22% 20%

SalPa Draw FC Jazz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWLLWD

FC Jazz 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWWDDD

Head-to-head

SalPa 3–2–1 FC Jazz (6 last)

FC Jazz1-2SalPa
SalPa2-3FC Jazz
FC Jazz0-1SalPa
SalPa2-1FC Jazz
SalPa1-1FC Jazz
FC Jazz0-0SalPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 1518 · FC Jazz 1485

	SalPa	Draw	FC Jazz
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	58%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SalPa: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa	FC Jazz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	1.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:42 +12’	1.53	4.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 3–2–1 FC Jazz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	1-2 HT 0-0	SalPa
29/03/25 Europe Friendlies	SalPa	2-3 HT 0-1	FC Jazz
10/09/22 Finland Kakkonen Group B	FC Jazz	0-1 HT 0-0	SalPa
22/06/22 Finland Kakkonen Group B	SalPa	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Jazz
14/08/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	SalPa	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Jazz
29/05/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	FC Jazz	0-0 HT 0-0	SalPa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	19	12	4	3	41	15	40
2	RoPS	19	10	6	3	42	25	36
3	OLS	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	19	8	6	5	34	26	30
5	SalPa	19	8	6	5	34	31	30
6	VJS Vantaa	19	7	8	4	33	24	29
7	JJK	19	7	5	7	41	35	26
8	FC Jazz	19	7	5	7	27	28	23
9	TPV	19	5	5	9	28	37	20
10	FC Inter II	19	5	5	9	30	45	20
11	KPV	19	3	3	13	18	58	12
12	KUPS Akatemia	19	2	5	12	30	44	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa	FC Jazz
TPV	1-1 D	4-0 W
JJK	2-1 W	3-1 W
KPV	0-3 L	0-1 L
PK Keski-Uusimaa	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Inter II	2-1 W	1-1 D
Tampere Utd	1-0 W	0-1 L
VJS Vantaa	2-2 D	1-1 D
RoPS	2-2 D	2-2 D
KUPS Akatemia	4-3 W	2-2 D
OLS	0-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 5 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Jazz (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa

LWDDWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	13	2	L
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
27/06	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
12/06	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-3	9	4	W
06/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-5	6	4	L

FC Jazz

DDLLLWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
30/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
24/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
18/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
11/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
02/07	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
25/06	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
06/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa vs FC Jazz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa win (58%). Probabilities: SalPa 58%, draw 22%, FC Jazz 20%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa vs FC Jazz?

The model expects 3.11 goals (SalPa 2 · FC Jazz 1.11), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa vs FC Jazz?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.